The impact of social exclusion and identity on migrant workers' willingness to return to their hometown: micro-empirical evidence from rural China

Using data from the China Migrants Dynamic Survey (CMDS) 2017, this study examines how social exclusion influences migrant workers' willingness to return home (MWRH) and the mediating role of identity. The findings show that social exclusion significantly increases MWRH, and results remain robust after addressing endogeneity via instrumental variables. Identity partially mediates the relationship between social exclusion and MWRH. The effect of social exclusion on MWRH is most pronounced among rural residents in western and northeastern regions, the older generation, those with lower incomes, and those with intra-provincial mobility. Policy suggestions include promoting positive images of migrant workers, enhancing their quality of life to mitigate social exclusion and strengthen identity, and providing supportive platforms for those who return.