The economic dimension of migration: Kosovo from 2015 to 2020

Migration is a significant aspect of globalization, driven by factors like work opportunities, poverty, conflict, and climate change. The 2020 World Migration Report estimated approximately 281 million migrants globally. The EU alone hosted 86 million migrants. The UN DESA highlights the close relationship between migration and economic, social, demographic, political, and technological changes. This article uses Kosovo as a case study to examine the patterns linking economic development, stability, and migration trends. It investigates the impact of social history, labor market mismatches, high unemployment, demographic composition, and the Kosovo-EU relationship on emigration. The study analyzes how migration motives have shifted from collective decisions influenced by family and society towards individual rational choices to maximize opportunities. While acknowledging the influence of neoclassical and New Economic theories on migration, the authors argue that Kosovar migration patterns are best explained by Stark and Bloom's New Economy theory, considering both individual choices and societal influences, particularly the role of family and household.

The study reviews existing migration theories, starting with the neoclassical theory focusing on socioeconomic factors like wage differentials and labor market demands. This is contrasted with Stark's New Economic theory, emphasizing the collective nature of migration decisions, influenced by social entities and interactions. The authors critique the neoclassical approach for its limitations in explaining social differences and ignoring factors like structural inequality and family influence. The historical context of migration in Kosovo is also examined, tracing its links to human rights violations, political instability, and socioeconomic conditions during and after the Yugoslav era. The authors highlight the significant role of remittances in supporting Kosovar livelihoods.

This study employs a mixed-method approach. It analyzes statistical data on migration from Kosovo between 2015 and 2020, sourced from the Kosovo Agency of Statistics (KAS), the Employment Agency of Kosovo (EARK), the Central Bank of the Republic of Kosovo (CBRK), and EUROSTAT. This quantitative data is complemented by a review of existing research on the historical impact of socio-political circumstances on migration trends in Kosovo. The authors examine various economic and socio-political factors, including unemployment rates (overall and youth unemployment), labor market participation (especially among women), gender inequality in employment, the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the labor market, and the mismatch between education and labor market demands. Migration trends are analyzed based on official statistics, including emigration numbers, repatriation rates, and destination countries. The analysis also explores the impact of the Stabilization and Association Agreement (SAA) with the EU and the ongoing visa liberalization dialogue (VLD) on migration patterns. The concept of "brain drain," particularly the emigration of highly skilled workers, is investigated, examining its consequences for Kosovo's economy and social development. The research considers the influence of push factors (e.g., high unemployment, lack of opportunity) and pull factors (better conditions in destination countries).

The study reveals that high unemployment, especially among youth (reaching 53.5% on average between 2015-2019), and low wages are major push factors driving emigration from Kosovo. A significant portion of the working-age population (around 66.76%) was either unemployed or inactive between 2015 and Q1 2020. Gender inequality in the labor market is also highlighted, with women significantly less likely to be employed than men. The COVID-19 pandemic further exacerbated unemployment in 2020. Between 2011 and 2017, over 180,000 Kosovars emigrated, with the highest emigration rates observed in 2015 (75,000). The majority of emigrants sought employment in Germany, Switzerland, Italy, Austria, and Sweden. The signing of the SAA with the EU in 2015, while initially promising, did not lead to visa liberalization, resulting in a surge in illegal migration. Remittances from the Kosovar diaspora constitute a significant portion of the national income, highlighting the economic impact of emigration. The "brain drain" is identified as a critical issue, with a significant number of highly educated individuals, including doctors and nurses, emigrating, causing shortages and impacting the quality of services, particularly in the healthcare sector. This brain drain is fueled by a mismatch between the education system and labor market demands. There is an oversupply of graduates in some fields (e.g., economics and law) and an undersupply in others (e.g., IT).

The findings demonstrate a complex interplay between individual choices and broader socio-economic factors driving emigration from Kosovo. While individual aspirations play a role, the persistent high unemployment rates, coupled with a lack of opportunities and institutional shortcomings, are crucial push factors. The study reveals a considerable mismatch between the supply of educated workers and the absorptive capacity of the Kosovar labor market. The delayed implementation of visa liberalization, despite the SAA with the EU, fuels illegal migration and further exacerbates the situation. The "brain drain" highlights the loss of valuable human capital, especially in vital sectors such as healthcare. The findings indicate that merely addressing economic aspects is insufficient; significant institutional reforms and a better alignment between education and labor market needs are crucial for addressing emigration and promoting sustainable development in Kosovo. The EU's selective approach toward skilled workers intensifies the brain drain and generates counterproductive outcomes.

This study concludes that persistent high unemployment and the mismatch between education and labor market demands are the primary drivers of emigration from Kosovo. The EU's ambivalent stance on visa liberalization for Kosovars, coupled with the selective immigration policies of EU member states, leads to an unsustainable brain drain, particularly impacting the healthcare sector. Future research could investigate the long-term economic and social consequences of this emigration and explore the effectiveness of different policies aimed at retaining skilled workers and promoting economic development in Kosovo. Further research might examine the impact of diaspora remittances on the Kosovar economy more comprehensively.

The study relies primarily on official statistics, which may not fully capture the complexities of irregular migration. The analysis focuses on macroeconomic factors; future studies could incorporate more granular data to examine specific sectors and regional variations. The study's timeframe (2015-2020) limits its ability to provide a comprehensive historical perspective on emigration from Kosovo. Furthermore, the study predominantly focuses on economic and socio-political factors, acknowledging that cultural and personal factors also play a role in migration decisions.