Strained agricultural farming under the stress of youths' career selection tendencies: a case study from Hokkaido (Japan)

The study investigates how Japan’s demographic aging and youth career choices contribute to labor shortages in agriculture, focusing on Hokkaido. Despite high job availability, national unemployment remains flat, suggesting mismatches between labor supply and demand. Japan’s rapidly aging population—particularly in farming where over 60% of farmers are 65+—threatens food self-sufficiency and increases reliance on imports. Hokkaido, the country’s agricultural “food basket,” similarly faces an imbalance with few young farmers. The research asks: (1) how youth relocation and aging relate to shortages of agricultural workers; and (2) what career selection tendencies and perceptions among urban youth (Sapporo) indicate about low interest in farming. Understanding these dynamics can inform policies to better align youth career guidance with regional labor needs and support sustainable socio-economic outcomes.

Key themes include: (1) Demographic trends—Japan’s population is aging (27% aged 65+ in 2017) with declining fertility and projected population shrinkage below 100 million by 2053; longevity is rising while birth rates fall, pressuring pensions and health systems and altering intergenerational support. (2) Agriculture—Postwar policies and neoliberal trade increased food import dependence; Japan’s food self-sufficiency is ~38% versus Hokkaido’s 200%. Hokkaido has large farm sizes but faces declining farmer numbers; labor shortages intensify when management area exceeds ~20 ha, and further consolidation to ~50 ha by 2030 is projected, risking loss of skills and basic crop capacity. COVID-19 underscored vulnerabilities in global food supply chains, highlighting the importance of domestic production. (3) Education history—Japan shifted from a prewar dual track to a single-track system (junior high–high school–university), with massification of higher education (university enrollment ~50% of 18-year-olds). Vocational tracks exist (colleges of technology) but serve less than 1% of the cohort; social perceptions often rank vocational paths below university. Agricultural high schools in Hokkaido are few relative to needs, and very few graduates enter farming directly. (4) Career guidance—Japan lacks a system of professional school counselors; guidance is typically provided by teachers with limited labor-market matching tools. There is no comprehensive resource akin to the U.S. OOH, and counseling tends to bifurcate between academic and vocational tracks. The literature suggests providing precise, labor-market-informed counseling and addressing social perceptions to improve alignment between youth choices and workforce needs.

Study period: 2013–2017. The research employed mixed qualitative and survey methods addressing two objectives. 1) Agricultural side: Conducted interviews with 20 full-time farmers (primarily rice and vegetable producers) across Hokkaido. Some interviews were facilitated by Japan Agricultural Cooperatives (JA). The first author also participated in farm activities during cultivation and harvest seasons and attended farming festivals/events to collect contextual information. Interview topics included farm demographics, labor needs, crop choices, and children’s educational and career pathways, especially post-relocation to urban areas. Additional surveys were conducted with farming corporations. 2) Youth side: Administered questionnaires to 157 adolescents (aged 16–18) at Sapporo Kaisei Secondary School (urban Hokkaido). Items covered intended future career fields, motivations for choice, and perceptions of farming as lifestyle/career. Data were not disaggregated by gender or other attributes due to school privacy policy. Students’ chosen fields were categorized into two groups: “Science and Technology” versus “Others.” Respondents supplied reasons for their selections, enabling estimation of the influence from parents, teachers, or friends versus intrinsic/professional motivations.

- Farmer interviews: Near urban areas, farmers prefer labor-intensive, higher-payout vegetables due to market proximity; remote-area farmers favor grain crops. With aging, even peri-urban farmers shift toward grains due to lower labor demands, suggesting a potential decline in vegetable farming given scarce young labor. Most farmers’ children relocate to cities for education and rarely return to family farms, exacerbating rural labor shortages. - Student survey (n=157): 50.3% had decided on a future career; among those decided, ~76% preferred science and technology fields. Reasons were predominantly intrinsic/professional interest; fewer than 6% reported influence from parents, teachers, or friends. - Four perceived deterrents to farming among youth: (i) fascination with science/technology careers; (ii) desire for city life; (iii) exaggerated perceptions of farming risks from weather/climate events; (iv) perceived financial barriers to starting a farm. - The concentration of youth interest in science/technology likely intensifies competition and saturation in urban sectors while leaving agricultural vacancies unfilled, contributing to a flat national unemployment rate despite vacancies in rural areas.

Findings link demographic aging and youth urban migration to persistent agricultural labor shortages in Hokkaido. The strong urban, science/technology-oriented career preferences among high-school students align with labor market saturation in certain urban sectors and under-subscription in rural agricultural roles, helping explain flat overall unemployment alongside unfilled rural jobs. Interviews highlight how aging farmers adapt cropping patterns toward less labor-intensive grains and how children’s education-driven relocation leads to low return rates, compounding rural decline. The study underscores deficiencies in Japan’s secondary-level career guidance: limited specialized counseling, lack of detailed occupational trait descriptions, and absence of transparent labor market supply-demand data. Providing data-driven counseling could influence undecided students (~50% in the sample) and temper overly optimistic assumptions about urban science/technology prospects while clarifying realistic opportunities in agriculture (including peri-urban, tech-adjacent agrifood roles). Correcting misinformation about climatic risk and publicizing start-up support programs could reduce perceived barriers. Broader implications include the need for policies integrating demographic realities, regional sustainability, and labor-market alignment to support rural vitality and food security.

Youth relocation to cities and a strong preference for science and technology careers are contributing to agricultural labor shortages and potential sectoral imbalances in Hokkaido. Urban career saturation may coexist with rural vacancies, sustaining a flat national unemployment rate. Current high-school career guidance is general and lacks labor-market depth. The study recommends: (1) more precise, specialized career counseling incorporating occupational traits and supply-demand data; (2) expanding farming-related vocational institutes in Hokkaido; (3) introducing agriculture-related educational units earlier in schooling; and (4) leveraging media to disseminate accurate information about farming risks and available government start-up support. These measures could increase informed interest in agricultural careers and help rebalance regional labor needs.

- Youth sample limited to a single urban high school (Sapporo Kaisei Secondary School); findings are indicative, not generalizable across Hokkaido or Japan. - Student data were not disaggregated by gender or other attributes due to privacy policies. - Farmer interviews (n=20) and corporate surveys provide qualitative depth but limited statistical representativeness. - Career field categorization into two broad groups may mask important intra-field variation.