Japan, despite high job availability, faces persistent unemployment alongside a critical shortage of agricultural workers, particularly in rural areas like Hokkaido. This demographic imbalance, characterized by a rapidly aging farming population and a youth exodus to urban centers, jeopardizes food self-sufficiency and threatens economic stability. The flat unemployment rate, despite numerous vacancies in agriculture, highlights a mismatch between available jobs and career aspirations. This study investigates this disconnect by examining the career choices of Hokkaido youth and the challenges faced by farmers. Hokkaido, being a significant agricultural producer, provides a compelling case study. The research aims to identify the factors driving young people away from agriculture, understand their career aspirations, and propose policy interventions to encourage greater participation in the agricultural sector and alleviate the existing labor shortage. The aging population in Japan, with a projected decline in the working-age population and a rising dependency ratio, strains the social security system. The increasing costs of pensions and medical care necessitate innovative solutions, including efforts to retain older workers, increase female labor force participation, and consider immigration. However, the physically demanding nature of agricultural and construction work often requires young male workers, making the situation even more complex. While immigration offers a potential solution, its impact may be limited by cultural and language barriers. This study focuses on a more nuanced approach by examining career selection trends among young people, specifically focusing on their perceptions of and interest in the agricultural sector.

Japan's aging population is a well-documented challenge, with a high percentage of individuals aged 65 or older. The country's social security system, initially based on reserve financing, now relies heavily on pay-as-you-go financing due to the rapidly aging population. The impact extends to the labor market, affecting employment opportunities, retirement age, and the role of women in the workforce. The agricultural sector in Japan has experienced a decline, influenced by post-World War II economic shifts, neoliberal trade policies, and the increasing dominance of large-scale farmers. The food self-sufficiency rate has dropped significantly, making Japan heavily reliant on food imports. Hokkaido, while having a high food self-sufficiency rate, mirrors the national trend of a declining number of young farmers. Japan's education system has undergone changes since World War II, transitioning from a dual-track system (academic and vocational) to a largely single-track system. This shift has influenced the perception of vocational education, sometimes viewed negatively compared to university education. The lack of dedicated career counselors in high schools and the general nature of career guidance provide limited information regarding job market realities. Previous research has highlighted the career decision-making processes of adolescents, influenced by factors like family environment, interests, and perceived opportunities. However, few studies have directly combined data on farming challenges with youth career choices.

This four-year study (2013-2017) employed a mixed-methods approach. First, to understand the challenges faced by farmers, the researchers conducted interviews with 20 full-time rice and vegetable farmers in Hokkaido. These interviews, facilitated through collaborations with the Japan Agricultural Cooperatives (JA), explored demographic factors, including children's career paths. Surveys were also conducted at farming corporations to gather supplementary data. Second, to investigate youth career selection tendencies, questionnaires were distributed to 157 students (aged 16-18) at Sapporo Kaisei Secondary School. The questionnaires assessed students' chosen career paths, reasons for their choices, and perceptions of farming. Data was categorized into "Science and Technology" and "Other" career fields, with analysis focused on identifying influencing factors (parental/teacher influence, personal interest, etc.) in career choices. The study did not disaggregate data based on gender or other specific demographics due to school privacy policies.

Interviews with farmers revealed that farmers closer to urban areas prefer vegetable cultivation due to better market access and higher profits, while those in remote areas focus on grain crops. As farmers age, many shift from vegetable to grain production due to physical limitations. The study highlighted a trend of children from farming families leaving for urban areas for higher education and rarely returning to the family farm. The high school questionnaire findings revealed that approximately half (50.3%) of the students had already chosen a career path. Among those with a chosen career, 76% aimed for careers in science and technology, driven primarily by personal interest and career aspirations, rather than external recommendations. Four major factors emerged as discouraging youth from pursuing agriculture: (1) a strong attraction to science and technology careers in urban areas, (2) a preference for city life, (3) an exaggerated perception of weather-related risks associated with farming, and (4) perceived financial hurdles in starting an agricultural business. This rural-urban migration pattern threatens the sustainability of rural communities and agricultural practices.

The findings highlight a significant rural-urban migration pattern in Hokkaido, contributing to the aging of the farming population and labor shortages. The high preference for science and technology careers among urban youth, combined with inadequate career counseling, leads to a mismatch between available jobs and career aspirations. The flat unemployment rate, despite vacancies in rural sectors, suggests a system-wide issue in career decision-making. This study provides compelling evidence that the current lack of specific career guidance influences career choices and underscores the need for improved guidance systems providing in-depth information on job market trends and career opportunities in various fields. The exaggerated perception of risks associated with farming further highlights the importance of disseminating accurate information to dispel misconceptions and promote a more balanced view of the agricultural sector.

This research underscores the critical link between youth relocation, career choices, and the sustainability of agriculture in Hokkaido. The strong preference for urban science and technology careers, coupled with limited career guidance, contributes directly to the aging farming population and labor shortages. The study recommends implementing detailed career counseling in schools, providing students with accurate information about job markets and addressing misconceptions about farming. Increasing the number of farming-related vocational training institutes, alongside educational interventions in earlier stages of education, may help address the labor shortage and ensure the long-term sustainability of Hokkaido's agricultural sector. Future research could broaden the scope to include additional high schools, investigate gender-specific career choices, and explore the effectiveness of specific interventions to promote agricultural careers.

The study's findings are based on data from a single high school in Sapporo and a limited number of farmers, limiting the generalizability of results. The lack of gender disaggregation in the high school data limits the exploration of gender-specific career aspirations. The self-reported nature of the questionnaire data might introduce bias. Future research should expand the sample size and include data from a wider range of high schools across Hokkaido to enhance the generalizability of findings.