Spatial and temporal expansion of global wildland fire activity in response to climate change

Global warming is expected to alter wildfire potential and fire season severity, but the magnitude and location of change are unclear. The authors show that climate largely determines present fire-prone regions and their fire season, categorizing these regions into four classes aligned with Boreal, Temperate, Tropical, and Arid zones. Using climate model projections, they assess modifications in extent and fire season length by late 21st century and find that frequent fire-prone conditions increase globally by 29%, mostly in Boreal (+111%) and Temperate (+25%) zones, with significant lengthening of potential fire seasons. The results highlight the large but uneven impact of warming on Earth’s environment.