Skilful decadal-scale prediction of fish habitat and distribution shifts

Many fish and marine organisms are responding to climate change by shifting their distribution. This impacts communities and businesses that depend on these resources and can drive international conflicts. This paper demonstrates the use of decadal-scale climate predictions to forecast fish habitat and distribution shifts. Statistically significant forecast skill is shown, outperforming baseline forecasts 3–10 years ahead, with multi-year averages showing even better performance (correlation coefficients exceeding 0.90 in some cases). The study demonstrates that the habitat shifts underlying conflicts over Atlantic mackerel fishing rights could have been predicted. The results highlight the potential of climate predictions to provide valuable decadal-scale information for stakeholders, aiding adaptation to climate change.

Mark R. Payne, Gokhan Danabasoglu, Noel Keenlyside, Daniela Matei, Anna K. Miesner, Shuting Yang, Stephen G. Yeager