Earth Sciences

Skilful prediction of cod stocks in the North and Barents Sea a decade in advance

V. Koul, C. Sguotti, et al.

Discover essential insights into the future of cod stocks in the North and Barents Seas! This groundbreaking research by Vimal Koul, Camilla Sguotti, and colleagues delivers accurate forecasts of cod biomass, highlighting alarming trends for North Sea cod and potential declines for Northeast Arctic cod. Learn how these predictions could impact fisheries management and marine ecosystems.

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Playback language: English

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Abstract

Reliable information about the future state of the ocean and fish stocks is necessary for informed decision-making. This study provides skillful forecasts of cod biomass in the North and Barents Seas a decade in advance using a unified dynamical-statistical prediction system. Statistical models link future stock biomass to dynamical predictions of sea surface temperature, considering different fishing mortalities. Retrospective forecasts suggest differences in prediction skill sources between the two cod stocks. Forecasts indicate continued unfavorable conditions for North Sea cod, inhibiting recovery at present fishing levels, and a Northeast Arctic cod stock decrease compared to recent highs.

Publisher

Communications Earth & Environment

Published On

Jul 06, 2021

Authors

Vimal Koul, Camilla Sguotti, Marius Årthun, Sebastian Brune, André Düsterhus, Bjarte Bogstad, Geir Ottersen, Johanna Baehr, Corinna Schrum

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