Satisfying the multiple needs of older adults in rural China through the adaptation of dual polycentric systems

The global population aged 65+ is projected to reach 16% by 2050, posing significant challenges, especially in rural areas where older adults often face greater health needs and reduced care access. In China, approximately 40% of the 13.5% of the population aged 65+ live in rural areas. Existing solutions to rural aging often rely on external forces, resulting in high costs and lack of sustainability. This study focuses on the intergenerational relationship between adult offspring and their aging parents in rural China, examining whether offspring can simultaneously meet their parents' multiple needs (daily care, economic well-being, spiritual fulfillment) and pursue their nuclear families' development. Polycentric theory suggests a potential solution: a polycentric systems approach to scrutinize the intergenerational ties. This study addresses two research questions: 1. How to construct polycentric systemic models around the life patterns of adult offspring and their older parents? 2. How might these distinct polycentric systems be adapted and managed to capitalize on the advantages of spontaneous order? To answer these, an integrated framework and fsQCA are employed. The framework systematically models the polycentric systems, and fsQCA identifies critical nesting points for their integration, leveraging the spontaneous order of a complex nested-polycentric system. The study offers both theoretical (a novel framework for understanding rural aging) and practical (a polycentric system involving multiple organizations) contributions.

The literature highlights the increasing challenges of rural aging, exacerbated by factors such as limited resources, health issues, social isolation, and the impact of rural-urban migration. While migration can provide financial benefits through remittances, it often increases the burden on older adults and diminishes their social engagement and happiness. Existing policy responses, such as China's New Rural Pension Scheme (NRPS) and efforts to integrate rural and urban social insurance systems, have shown some positive impact, but also variations in effectiveness. Developed countries' experiences with privatization and public-private partnerships in elderly care suggest potential improvements, highlighting the need for more effective solutions, particularly in the context of rural China. This paper proposes a novel methodology using the concept of polycentricity to address this issue.

The study employs fuzzy-set Qualitative Comparative Analysis (fsQCA) to explore nesting points between two polycentric systems: one representing the multiple needs of older adults (perceived daily care, economic well-being, spiritual fulfillment) and the other representing the life strategies of their adult offspring (traditional mindsets, market economy participation, government policies, social activities, filial piety). Data was collected through surveys and interviews with 129 valid samples from 44 villages across four Chinese provinces (Shandong, Anhui, Jiangsu, Jiangxi). The selection of provinces is based on their representative and pioneering characteristics within China. Variables were measured using a combination of objective and subjective indicators, calibrated to a fuzzy-set scale using three breakpoints (5th, 50th, and 95th percentiles). fsQCA was used to identify necessary and sufficient conditions for achieving high levels of perceived daily care, economic well-being, and spiritual fulfillment. The analysis involved truth table analysis, consistency and frequency cutoffs, and examination of solution consistency and coverage. A robustness test involving a subsample was conducted to evaluate the predictive validity of the findings.

The fsQCA analysis revealed that no single antecedent variable was a necessary condition for any of the outcome variables, indicating that a multi-faceted approach is needed. Regarding perceived daily care, four configuration types emerged: a government-policy-led model, a harmonious family environment model (market economy co-leading), a sociable children and traditional mindset co-led model, and a traditional rural family model (less common). For perceived economic well-being, a government-policy, sociable children, and non-authoritative filial piety co-led model was identified. Three configuration types were found for perceived spiritual fulfillment: a sociable children-led model, a reciprocal filial piety-led model, and a sociable children and reciprocal filial piety co-led model. A robustness check using a subsample confirmed the predictive validity of the findings. The core conditions across all configurations identified in the empirical study include social activities (Cent-Soci), reciprocal filial piety (Recip-FP), government policies (Cent-Gov), and market economy participation (Cent-Mark), while traditional mindsets (Cent-Trad) and authoritative filial piety (Auth-FP) were either insignificant or negatively significant.

The findings address the research questions by identifying specific configurations of factors influencing the fulfillment of older adults' needs. The absence of necessary conditions highlights the complexity of the issue, emphasizing the importance of considering multiple interacting factors rather than relying on single-dimensional solutions. The identified configurations offer practical implications for policy and intervention strategies. The emphasis on social activities, reciprocal filial piety, government policies, and market economy integration suggests a holistic approach that fosters both individual agency and collective responsibility. The results also challenge traditional approaches to family care, suggesting that a balance between societal support and family responsibility, along with a shift away from authoritative filial piety, is crucial. The research contributes to the literature on rural aging, polycentric governance, and intergenerational relationships.

This study offers a novel polycentric framework for understanding and addressing the complex challenges of rural aging in China. By identifying key nesting points for integrating two polycentric systems (adult children's life strategies and older adults' needs), the research proposes an organizational-level polycentric system that leverages spontaneous order to achieve more sustainable and effective care solutions. Future research could explore the generalizability of these findings across diverse cultural and socio-economic contexts and further investigate the mechanisms through which these nesting points facilitate system alignment.

The study's limitations include the inherent complexities of the fsQCA method, potentially impacting interpretability and simplification of details. The focus on rural China limits the generalizability of findings to similar contexts and cultures. The proposed polycentric system remains a conceptual framework that requires further testing and practical implementation to assess its effectiveness.