This research investigates the impact of global urban land expansion on ecological services, considering the trade-offs between population growth and available urban land. Using an integrated framework and Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), the study projects global land consumption and explores trade-off strategies. Results show that implementing these strategies can significantly reduce future land consumption, increase carbon sinks, and protect the global ecological service system. Under SSP1, for example, land conversion to forest or grassland could decrease consumption by 8.07% by 2100. The findings are valuable for designing land use policies that support sustainable urban development while accommodating population growth.

Di Yang, Wei-Xin Luan, Xiaoling Zhang