This study investigates the spatial and temporal dynamics of population distribution in Chinese counties using data from the first to seventh national population censuses (1953-2020). Employing ArcGIS spatial analysis and an ARIMA model, the research reveals significant growth trends and regional disparities, with population concentration in urban agglomerations and southeastern coastal regions, while decline is observed in northeastern and border areas. The study identifies "high-high" agglomerations around provincial capitals and "low-low" agglomerations in less developed regions. Population projections suggest a decline to 1343.68 million by 2035, highlighting the need for strategic population development and resource allocation.

Mei Sang, Jing Jiang, Xin Huang, Feifei Zhu, Qian Wang