This research addresses the critical knowledge gap regarding China's historical and projected emissions of high global warming potential fluorinated greenhouse gases (F-GHGs). China, the world's largest greenhouse gas emitter, has committed to carbon neutrality by 2060. However, detailed information on F-GHG emissions, including sulfur hexafluoride (SF₆), nitrogen trifluoride (NF₃), and four perfluorocarbons (PFCs), is lacking. Understanding these emissions is crucial for effective climate change mitigation strategies, as F-GHGs have long atmospheric lifetimes and high global warming potentials (GWPs), significantly contributing to global warming. This study aims to provide a comprehensive inventory of China's F-GHG emissions from 1990 to 2019, validated by top-down estimates, and to project future emissions to 2060 under a business-as-usual scenario. The results will illuminate China's contribution to global F-GHG emissions and the implications for achieving its carbon neutrality goals. This study's significance lies in its potential to inform policy decisions related to F-GHG emission reduction in China and globally, thereby impacting efforts to mitigate climate change.

Previous studies on China's F-GHG emissions suffer from limitations such as missing species, incomplete source sectors, and limited target years. Official reports to the UNFCCC provided data for only four years (2005, 2010, 2012, and 2014), while other studies focused on specific gases or limited time periods. Bottom-up inventories often lacked complete source sector coverage, while top-down studies, based on atmospheric observations and inverse modeling, were limited by the availability of atmospheric data. This study aims to overcome these limitations by constructing a more comprehensive and detailed inventory.

The study developed a comprehensive bottom-up inventory of China's F-GHG emissions from 1990 to 2019, encompassing six key gases (SF₆, NF₃, CF₄, C₂F₆, C₃F₈, and c-C₄F₈) and thirteen source sectors. Data on production and consumption were gathered from various sources, including yearbooks, reports, news articles, and interviews with industry experts. Emission factors were determined using methods outlined in IPCC guidelines, incorporating data from previous studies and incorporating adjustments based on technological advancements. A Monte Carlo simulation was used to assess the uncertainty in emission estimates. Future emissions (2020-2060) were projected based on relationships between historical GDP and F-GHG production/consumption data, utilizing ten different GDP projection scenarios from the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). Finally, the projected emissions were used to estimate changes in global radiative forcing and temperature using established methodologies.

The study's key findings reveal a dramatic increase in China's F-GHG emissions over the past three decades. Total F-GHG emissions grew from 5.5 Mt CO₂-eq yr⁻¹ in 1990 to 221 Mt CO₂-eq yr⁻¹ in 2019. This surge is primarily driven by SF₆ (52%), CF₄ (20%), and NF₃ (13%). The electrical equipment sector (24%) and semiconductor manufacturing (22%) are the most significant contributors to emissions. China's contribution to global F-GHG emissions increased substantially during this period, exceeding those of Annex I countries in 2007 and surpassing emissions from other non-Annex I countries by 2018. The study projects a substantial increase in China's F-GHG emissions to 506-1356 Mt CO₂-eq yr⁻¹ by 2060 under a business-as-usual scenario, potentially surpassing projected CO₂ emissions under the carbon neutrality target. This projected increase would lead to a significant rise in radiative forcing (16.5–32.2 mW m⁻²) and global temperature (0.013–0.025 °C).

The findings underscore the significant and rapidly growing contribution of China's F-GHG emissions to global warming. While China's overall CO₂ emissions are targeted for reduction under its carbon neutrality commitment, the continued growth of F-GHG emissions, if unabated, could severely undermine these efforts. The major sectors identified (electrical equipment, semiconductor manufacturing, aluminum production) require urgent attention for mitigation strategies. The study's projections highlight the critical need for implementing effective policies and technologies to curb F-GHG emissions in these sectors. The large increase in China's contribution to global F-GHG emissions also highlights the need for international collaboration in addressing this aspect of climate change mitigation.

This study provides a comprehensive and up-to-date assessment of China's F-GHG emissions, revealing their significant and accelerating growth. The projections emphasize the critical need for stringent emission reduction policies targeting key sectors. Future research should focus on detailed sector-specific mitigation strategies, technological advancements, and policy options to curb the escalating emissions and achieve China's carbon neutrality goal. Further investigation into the uncertainties associated with the various data inputs and emission factors is also recommended.

The projections of future emissions are dependent on the accuracy of GDP growth predictions, which inherently involves uncertainty. The study focuses on six major F-GHGs, and the contribution of other minor F-GHGs may need further investigation. The availability of comprehensive and reliable data on F-GHG production and consumption across all sectors in China remains a challenge. The study uses a bottom-up approach, and independent validation using atmospheric measurements would strengthen the findings further.