This study investigates the potential for unprecedented heat and drought events in major wheat-producing regions of the USA and China, highlighting the limitations of relying solely on historical data for risk assessment in a changing climate. Using the UNprecedented Simulated Extreme ENsemble (UNSEEN) approach with a large ensemble of seasonal forecasts, the research reveals a significant increase in the likelihood of extreme temperatures exceeding critical physiological thresholds for wheat plants. These extreme temperatures are often coupled with extremely dry conditions, driven by strong winds pulling dry air into the regions. The study emphasizes the potential for surprise, as recent temperature extremes underestimate the current risk, and highlights the need for adaptation planning based on plausible, yet unforeseen, events.

Erin Coughlan de Perez, Hamsa Ganapathi, Gibbon I. T. Masukwedza, Timothy Griffin, Timo Kelder