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Multi-annual prediction of drought and heat stress to support decision making in the wheat sector

Agriculture

Multi-annual prediction of drought and heat stress to support decision making in the wheat sector

B. Solaraju-murali, N. Gonzalez-reviriego, et al.

This research by Balakrishnan Solaraju-Murali and colleagues explores the effectiveness of decadal climate forecasts in predicting drought and heat stress impacts on wheat production globally. Their findings indicate a promising reliability and skillfulness of these forecasts, which can greatly aid in decision-making in the agricultural sector.

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Playback language: English
Abstract
This work assesses the forecast quality of drought and heat stress using agro-climatic indices (SPEI and HMDI) on a multi-annual timescale for wheat production. The study uses initialized decadal forecasts to predict these indices globally, finding that decadal climate forecasts are skillful and reliable over several wheat harvesting regions, supporting decision-making in the wheat sector.
Publisher
npj Climate and Atmospheric Science
Published On
Jun 01, 2021
Authors
Balakrishnan Solaraju-Murali, Nube Gonzalez-Reviriego, Louis-Philippe Caron, Andrej Ceglar, Andrea Toreti, Matteo Zampieri, Pierre-Antoine Bretonnière, Margarita Samsó Cabré, Francisco J. Doblas-Reyes
Tags
drought
heat stress
wheat production
agro-climatic indices
decadal forecasts
climate prediction
decision-making

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