Monkeypox outbreaks in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic: Network and clustering analyses of global risks and modified SEIR prediction of epidemic trends

This study aimed to assess spatiotemporal risk factors of MPX infection and predict global epidemiological trends. Using correlation-based network analysis and multivariate regression, 21 potential risk factors were evaluated. Country-level risk was assessed using a modified SEIR model and k-means clustering analysis. Results showed a shift in MPX risk factors from simple (HIV infection and population density) to multiple factors (human mobility, MSM population, COVID-19 infection, and socioeconomic factors) in the 2022 outbreak. Countries were classified into three risk clusters: high-risk (West Europe, North America), medium-risk (Latin America, Asia), and low-risk (Africa, South Asia). The modified SEIR model predicted declining transmission rates, with R0 values decreasing over time. Northern America and Latin America were predicted to surpass Europe in cumulative cases by autumn 2022. The study highlights the changing risk factors and the importance of considering human mobility in future MPX outbreak predictions.

Sitong Luo, JG, CZho, HL, RJ, ÅMW, KJ, YG, JM, CZha, WL, LX