The IPCC's 2023 report underscores the urgent need for emissions reduction to avoid severe climate change consequences. The UN Secretary-General emphasizes the need for accelerated climate action globally. This urgency necessitates a rapid increase in production-ready energy transition minerals (ETMs) to meet the growing demand for renewable energy technologies. However, the feasibility of achieving this rapid transition is contingent upon the policy actions of nation-states and their ability to mobilize their ETM resources. This research investigates the relationship between national resource inventories and policy actions in 18 countries with significant ETM reserves and production, aiming to assess the alignment between national-level actions and global climate objectives within the timeframes set by the Paris Agreement. The study acknowledges existing literature highlighting geographic and socio-political constraints on ETM extraction and the need for social and environmental safeguards. The long lead times required to move mining projects from discovery to production (estimated at 16.5 years by the IEA) raise significant concerns about near-term ETM production. The study focuses on the effectiveness of national policies in accelerating project readiness during a period of intensified global policy pronouncements and rising commodity prices.

The paper draws on existing research highlighting the geographic and socio-political constraints associated with current global energy transition aspirations, emphasizing the need to balance rapid ETM extraction with strengthened social and environmental safeguards. It also references studies on the long lead times associated with mining projects and the varying levels of governance capacity across different countries, influencing the relationship between resource inventories and mineral extraction rates. Existing literature on resource nationalism, community resistance, and the role of international investment treaties in shaping mining policy is also relevant to the study's framework.

The study analyzed data from 18 countries selected based on their significant global share of ETM reserves and production. These countries spanned various development levels and geographical regions. The data included information on mineral resource inventories, categorized by development stage (Grassroots & Reserves Development, Feasibility & Preproduction, Production & Closure), and national policy actions, categorized by type (Media Releases & Statements, Policy Pipeline Instruments, Legal & Regulatory Instruments). The data on resource inventories were obtained from the S&P Capital IQ Metals & Mining Properties database. Policy documents were identified through a comprehensive literature review, supplemented by consultations with experts from international advocacy and policy organizations. The selection criteria for policy documents included the time frame (2020-2023), the level of governance (national), and the explicit aim of accelerating ETM extraction. The study used a cluster analysis to group countries based on their resource inventories, development levels (HDI, OECD membership), and governance quality (RGI). The resulting clusters were analyzed to identify patterns of alignment or misalignment between resource inventories and policy actions aimed at expediting ETM supply. The analysis included correlation matrices to assess the relationships between project development stages and different types of policy actions within each cluster.

The analysis revealed significant variability in the distribution and near-term production-readiness of ETMs across the 18 countries. OECD countries (Cluster 2) showed stronger alignment between policy actions and global climate objectives compared to non-OECD countries. Cluster 1, comprising non-OECD countries with established mining economies, showed a relatively high number of policy initiatives, yet the majority of their ETM projects were in the later stages of development, indicating limited investment in early-stage exploration. Cluster 3, including non-OECD countries with strong exploration potential but weaker governance, had fewer reported projects and a scarcity of policy actions. The cluster analysis highlighted the significant influence of economic and political characteristics on a country's ability to rapidly mobilize its ETM resources. The study found little evidence of a direct relationship between favorable market prices for ETMs and the implementation of enabling policies to increase supply. A considerable portion (over 85%) of ETM projects in early development stages were concentrated in Cluster 2, highlighting the relative confidence of investors in the "safe" jurisdictions of OECD countries. The analysis revealed several positive and negative correlations between different policy types and project development stages within each cluster, providing insights into the effectiveness of various policy mechanisms in different national contexts.

The findings indicate a significant misalignment between global climate targets and the policy actions of many nation-states with substantial ETM reserves. This misalignment could result in substantial delays in achieving climate change mitigation goals. The study suggests that a rapid switch to renewable energy is unlikely due to the complex interplay between resource inventories, national policies, and geopolitical factors. The analysis reveals a core-periphery dynamic, where OECD countries (the core) are better positioned to exploit their resources and contribute to the global energy transition, while non-OECD countries (the periphery) face significant challenges. The findings highlight the need to move beyond simplistic narratives of a rapid energy transition and to acknowledge the socio-technical complexities of resource mobilization in diverse national contexts. The study emphasizes the importance of understanding the limitations of using nation-states as a singular unit of analysis and the crucial need to consider factors like sub-national regulations and international partnerships in future research.

This research reveals significant misalignments between global climate targets and national-level actions regarding ETM mobilization. This highlights the potential for delays in the energy transition and unequal outcomes based on resource endowment and economic power. The study emphasizes the need for more nuanced energy transition scenarios, recognizing the variations in national contexts. Future research should focus on understanding the specific obstacles faced by non-OECD countries and developing strategies to improve the alignment between national policies and global climate objectives.

The study's limitations include the exclusion of Russia and China from the analysis due to data limitations and geopolitical considerations. The focus on large-scale projects also omits artisanal and small-scale mining activities. The use of nation-states as units of analysis overlooks sub-national policies and supra-national initiatives, potentially limiting the complete picture of the alignment between national policies and global climate goals.