Late Ming Dynasty weak monsoon induced a harmonized megadrought across north-to-south China

Historians and paleoclimatologists have long studied the connection between ecoclimatic changes and empire growth, transformation, and decline, but striking cases remain rare. Here, we introduce a tree-ring chronology from southern China to reconstruct changes in April-to-November water balance of the middle reaches of the Yangtze River over the last 464 years. The reconstruction supports a quantitative assessment of the spatiotemporal structure of the late Ming megadrought and potential effects on subsequent dynastic transitions. Our results indicate that the late Ming megadrought from 1625–1644 CE occurred in both the northern and southern parts of the East Asian monsoon region in China. However, variations in the onset, duration, and magnitude of this event differ between regions. The combination of factors such as Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies, weakened solar activity, and large-scale volcanic eruptions may have contributed to the occurrence of the late Ming megadrought. These factors are also identified as key drivers of interannual to decadal fluctuations in drought in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River. Our reconstruction provides an historical context for the development of adaptive measures to mitigate future drought impacts in the region.