Large transboundary health impact of Arctic wildfire smoke

Rapid warming at high latitudes, particularly in Siberia, has led to large wildfires in recent years that generate widespread smoke plumes and substantially degrade summer air quality. Using the Community Earth System Model and the QFED fire emissions dataset, the study quantifies the fraction of PM2.5 attributed to wildfires occurring within Arctic Council member states and estimates associated mortality both locally and in neighboring countries. During 2001–2020, the analysis attributes approximately 21,000 excess deaths per year to Arctic Council wildfire-sourced PM2.5, about 8,000 of which occur outside the Arctic Council. Despite increasing wildfire-sourced PM2.5 in parts of Siberia, the overall health impact decreased over this period, which the authors suggest is due to a northward shift in the average latitude of Siberian wildfires, reducing exposure in more densely populated regions.

Ben Silver, Steve R. Arnold, Carly L. Reddington, Louisa K. Emmons, Luke Conibear