Indian vehicle ownership and travel behavior: A case study of Bengaluru, Delhi and Kolkata

India's vehicle fleet and travel behaviors will have enormous consequences to the world's economy and environment. This study developed a survey for over 1000 residents of India (or Indians) on topics of vehicle ownership and travel behavior in the key cities of Bengaluru (India's "Silicon Valley"), Kolkata (India's third most-populous metro area, formerly known as Calcutta) and Delhi (India's capital city). The data were then used to model vehicle ownership and use decisions, and other trip-making choices in those three regions, versus other parts of India. Covariates of personal income, household size and residence location were all found to be statistically and practically significant in models of vehicle distances traveled. A multinomial logit model was used to predict vehicle types owned (including motorized two-wheel and four-wheel vehicles), and a Poisson model was used for vehicle ownership counts. Income and other household assets were also valuable predictors. An origin model for vehicle manufacture also calibrated to help deliver future-year projections. The results suggest that the vehicles-per-person statistic will grow at an average annual growth rate of 5.7% over the next 20 years - at least in the regions of sampled data.

Prateek Bansal, Kara M. Kockelman, Will Schievelbein, Scott Schauer-West