Earth Sciences

Increasing risks of extreme salt intrusion events across European estuaries in a warming climate

J. Lee, B. Biemond, et al.

This research by Jiyong Lee, Bouke Biemond, Huib de Swart, and Henk A. Dijkstra reveals alarming predictions about salt intrusion in European estuaries fueled by climate change. Expect a reduction in river discharge leading to extreme salt intrusion events, potentially more than five times more frequent by the century's end.

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Abstract

This study investigates the projected increase in extreme salt intrusion events in European estuaries due to climate change. Using the Community Earth System Model 2 large ensemble simulation (CESM-LE2) under a high CO2 emission scenario (SSP 3-7.0), the researchers project a 10-60% reduction in summer river discharge in 17 out of 22 major European river basins by the end of the 21st century. This decrease leads to a 10-30% increase in salt intrusion lengths in 9 representative estuaries and a more than five-fold increase in the frequency of extreme salt intrusion events.

Publisher

Communications Earth & Environment

Published On

Jan 31, 2024

Authors

Jiyong Lee, Bouke Biemond, Huib de Swart, Henk A. Dijkstra