Seasonal advance of intense tropical cyclones in a warming climate

This study reveals a significant seasonal advance of intense tropical cyclones (TCs) since the 1980s across most tropical oceans, with earlier shifts of 3.7 and 3.2 days per decade in the Northern and Southern Hemispheres, respectively. This advance is closely linked to the earlier onset of favorable oceanic conditions (higher potential intensity and ocean heat content), primarily driven by greenhouse gas forcing, as evidenced by multi-model simulations and individual forcing experiments. The earlier TC season increases the likelihood of overlap with other extreme rainfall events (typically peaking in summer), potentially leading to amplified impacts.

Kaiyue Shan, Yanluan Lin, Pao-Shin Chu, Xiping Yu, Fengfei Song