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Increased risk of near term global warming due to a recent AMOC weakening

Earth Sciences

Increased risk of near term global warming due to a recent AMOC weakening

R. Bonnet, D. Swingedouw, et al.

This study, conducted by Rémy Bonnet and colleagues, delves into the striking discrepancy between CMIP6 model predictions and historical temperature observations. By analyzing the IPSL-CM6A-LR model, it reveals that internal variability, particularly an AMOC weakening, may have muted past warming trends, raising concerns about surpassing the critical 2°C warming limit.

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Playback language: English
Abstract
Some CMIP6 models show a strong temperature increase in response to greenhouse gases, seemingly inconsistent with past observations. This study investigates this discrepancy using the IPSL-CM6A-LR model and finds that members with lower warming rates over the past 6-7 decades also exhibit a significant internally-driven AMOC weakening. This matches observational AMOC fingerprints, suggesting internal variability dampened historical warming. Accounting for this AMOC weakening increases the risk of exceeding the 2°C warming threshold.
Publisher
Nature Communications
Published On
Oct 20, 2021
Authors
Rémy Bonnet, Didier Swingedouw, Guillaume Gastineau, Olivier Boucher, Julie Deshayes, Frédéric Hourdin, Juliette Mignot, Jérôme Servonnat, Adriana Sima
Tags
CMIP6
temperature increase
greenhouse gases
AMOC weakening
historical warming
climate models
internal variability

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