Population at risk of dengue virus transmission has increased due to coupled climate factors and population growth

Dengue virus transmission has increased over the last four decades, seemingly due to changes in climate, urbanization, and population growth. This study examined how shifts in climatic variables (temperature and humidity) and human population growth contributed to changes in the geographical distribution and size of the global population living in areas with high climate suitability for dengue transmission from 1979 to 2022. The study found an expansion in climate suitability in North America, East Asia, and the Mediterranean basin. Globally, the population in areas with high climate suitability grew by approximately 2.5 billion. In the Global South, this increase was largely driven by population growth, while in the Global North, it was predominantly due to expansion into previously unfavorable areas.

Taishi Nakase, Marta Giovanetti, Uri Obolski, José Lourenço