Increased risk of flash droughts with raised concurrent hot and dry extremes under global warming

Flash droughts, characterized by rapid onset and intensification, pose significant threats to agriculture and ecosystems. This study utilizes in situ observations, reanalysis data, and Earth system models to investigate the changing characteristics and impacts of flash droughts globally. The findings reveal an increase in flash drought frequency, faster onset, and longer duration, leading to greater exposure for agricultural areas, forests, and populations. Concurrent hot and dry conditions driven by warming are identified as the primary intensifying factor. However, CMIP6 models underestimate the acceleration of flash drought onset and their occurrence driven by precipitation deficits or heat waves, highlighting the need for model improvement to accurately represent the short-timescale covariability of climatic variables.

Zhaoqi Zeng, Wenxiang Wu, Josep Peñuelas, Yamei Li, Wenzhe Jiao, Zhaolei Li, Xinshuai Ren, Ke Wang, Quansheng Ge