Since the mid-1980s, millions of Chinese farmers have migrated to urban areas for work. However, since 2020, a significant "counter-current" has emerged, with many returning to their hometowns for employment and entrepreneurship, driven by factors such as the COVID-19 pandemic, economic slowdown, and government support policies. While this trend is increasing, the success rate of these returning migrant workers' entrepreneurial ventures remains low (3-year survival rate: 43.49%; 5-year survival rate: 22.71%). This study addresses the crucial need to understand and improve the entrepreneurial abilities of these individuals. The research aims to identify key internal and external factors influencing their entrepreneurial success and to suggest targeted policy recommendations to improve their chances of success. The low success rate highlights the importance of understanding the factors that contribute to successful entrepreneurship among this population, and informs the need for policy interventions to support their endeavors. This is particularly important given China’s rural revitalization strategy and its emphasis on rural economic development. The success or failure of returning migrant workers' entrepreneurial ventures will have a significant impact on this broader national strategy.

Existing literature emphasizes the significant role of entrepreneurial ability in determining entrepreneurial success. Research highlights both internal factors (personal qualities like creativity, information-gathering skills, interpersonal relationships, experience, and risk attitude) and external factors (cultural background, natural conditions, government policies) as critical influences. Studies in China have pointed to low cultural quality, insufficient technical skills, and a lack of management experience as key challenges for returning migrant workers. However, previous research lacks a comprehensive and reliable method for assessing the relative importance of these various factors. This study addresses this gap by developing a framework incorporating both internal and external factors using a robust analytical approach.

This research employs a mixed-methods approach combining SWOT and AHP analyses. Data was collected through a questionnaire survey conducted between July 2018 and October 2022 across four provinces in China (Sichuan, Henan, Jiangxi, and Anhui) known for high numbers of migrant workers. 6720 questionnaires were distributed, with 5675 valid responses (84.45% response rate). The sample included both successful and unsuccessful entrepreneurs. The SWOT analysis identified key strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats based on the survey data. Strengths included skills and experience, interpersonal connections, and a hard-working spirit. Weaknesses included insufficient funds, low cultural quality, and poor management ability. Opportunities included preferential government policies, government support, and industrial restructuring. Threats included high market risks, difficulties in external financing, and low technological content in many potential ventures. A hierarchical Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) was then used to quantitatively determine the relative importance of these SWOT factors. A hierarchical model was established with the target layer representing the choice of entrepreneurship; the criterion layer comprising the SWOT factors; and the scheme layer representing successful or failed entrepreneurship. Pairwise comparisons were conducted to construct judgment matrices for each SWOT group, and the consistency ratio (CR) was calculated to ensure the reliability of the results. The characteristic vector method was used to calculate the priority weights of the factors. The process involved intra-group ranking (comparing factors within each SWOT group) and inter-group ranking (comparing the four SWOT groups). This enabled a comprehensive ranking of the factors based on their relative impact on entrepreneurial success.

The AHP analysis revealed the following key findings regarding the factors influencing the entrepreneurial ability of returning migrant workers: **Intra-group Ranking:** * **Strengths:** Skill and experience (S1) > Interpersonal connections (S2) > Hard-working spirit (S3) * **Weaknesses:** Low management ability (W3) > Low cultural quality (W2) > Insufficient funds (W1) * **Opportunities:** Industrial restructuring (O3) > Preferential policy (O1) > Government support (O2) * **Threats:** Low technology content (T3) > Market risk (T1) > External financing difficulties (T2) **Overall Ranking (Inter-group):** The overall ranking, considering the relative importance across all SWOT factors, showed that: 1. Industrial restructuring (O3) had the highest priority, indicating its substantial impact on entrepreneurial success. 2. Low technology content (T3) was ranked second, highlighting the negative impact of low-tech ventures. 3. Skills and experience (S1) were ranked third, demonstrating the importance of prior experience and skillsets. 4. Low management ability (W3) came fourth, emphasizing the critical need to improve managerial skills. Other factors, such as interpersonal connections, low literacy, government incentives, market risks, external financing difficulties, and hard-working spirit, displayed varying degrees of influence, but with less impact compared to the top four. The data presented in Table 5 within the paper provides more detail on the precise weighting of each factor.

The findings support the hypothesis that both internal and external factors significantly impact the entrepreneurial ability of returning migrant workers. The high priority of industrial restructuring (O3) and low technology content (T3) underscore the importance of aligning entrepreneurial activities with suitable market opportunities and technological advancements. The significant role of skills and experience (S1) and the critical need to address low management ability (W3) highlight the necessity of targeted training and capacity-building initiatives. The results indicate that interventions focused on improving management capabilities, enhancing technological proficiency, and fostering suitable market opportunities would be highly effective in improving entrepreneurial outcomes. These findings corroborate existing literature, suggesting the interplay between individual capabilities and the environment shapes entrepreneurial success. The study's innovative methodological approach, combining SWOT and AHP analyses, provides a robust framework for evaluating the relative importance of various factors, which can be replicated in similar contexts.

This study provides a valuable contribution by offering a comprehensive and nuanced understanding of the factors impacting the entrepreneurial success of returning migrant workers in China. The combined SWOT and AHP analysis offers a novel approach to evaluating these factors, producing a prioritized list of areas for policy intervention. The results highlight the critical need for initiatives focused on enhancing managerial skills, promoting technological advancement in rural industries, and aligning entrepreneurial ventures with suitable market opportunities. Future research could explore the specific contextual factors influencing entrepreneurial success across different regions of China, further refining policy recommendations and extending the study to other developing countries.

The study’s findings are based on a specific sample population from four provinces in China, limiting generalizability across all regions of the country. The reliance on self-reported data through questionnaires may introduce biases. Further qualitative research could delve into the experiences of entrepreneurs to gain richer insights into the challenges and successes. Finally, the study focuses on a specific time period, and future research could explore how these factors evolve and change over time.