Agricultural production significantly contributes to greenhouse gas emissions, necessitating a green transformation. Agricultural green production technologies (AGPTs) aim to minimize resource consumption, reduce environmental degradation, and lessen pollution. However, AGPT adoption in developing countries, including China, remains low. Improving AGPT adoption is crucial for achieving agricultural green transformation. Smallholder farmers' adoption decisions are key to this process. While economic benefits are a primary motivator for technology adoption, risk aversion and concerns about increased costs often hinder farmers' choices. Therefore, understanding the relationship between AGPT adoption and income is crucial for promoting AGPTs. Existing research often focuses on individual AGPTs or general income, neglecting the interactive effects of multiple technologies and the specific impact on agricultural product sales income. This study aims to address these gaps by investigating the impact of the degree of AGPT adoption on citrus growers' income in Sichuan Province, analyzing its mechanisms through yield, sales price, and cost changes, and considering the moderating roles of market channels and farm scale.

Previous studies have confirmed the positive environmental and economic impacts of AGPT adoption. These studies often focus on single technologies like variety improvement, integrated pest management (IPM), or conservation agriculture, neglecting the interactive effects of multiple AGPTs. While some research highlights increased income through government transfers, higher sales prices, or augmented production, a comprehensive analysis of the degree of AGPT adoption and its impact on income, considering mediating factors like yield and price, is lacking. This study builds on existing literature by focusing on the adoption intensity of multiple AGPTs, using citrus sales income as a specific outcome variable, and investigating the mediating role of prices, yields, and costs, along with the moderating effects of various marketing channels.

This study employs the inverse probability weighted regression adjustment (IPWRA) model to analyze the impact of AGPT adoption on farmers' income, addressing potential selection bias. The IPWRA method is chosen because it can handle multivalued treatment effects, unlike propensity score matching (PSM) or endogenous switching regression (ESR). The model incorporates four adoption levels (0, 1, 2, and 3 AGPTs) as the independent variable and log-transformed citrus sales income as the dependent variable. Control variables include farmer demographics, household characteristics, and farm-specific factors. A mediating effect model investigates the pathways through which AGPT adoption influences income by examining the effects on materialised cost, yield per mu, and sales price. A moderating effect model assesses the role of marketing channels (e-commerce, farmers' markets, agricultural professional managers) on the relationship between AGPT adoption and income. Data were collected through a stratified equal-probability random sampling of 805 citrus farmers in Sichuan Province. Face-to-face interviews were used to gather data on farmer characteristics, AGPT adoption, and income.

The study's key findings indicate a significant positive relationship between the degree of AGPT adoption and farmers' income. Adopting 1, 2, and 3 AGPTs increased citrus sales income by 7.1%, 10.5%, and 19.8% respectively, compared to non-adoption. This increase is mainly due to higher yields and sales prices, which more than offset increased production costs. The mediating effect analysis showed that AGPT adoption leads to increased yield per mu (3.7% increase from no adoption to adopting three AGPTs) and higher sales price per catty (1.7%, 2.3%, and 3.0% increases for adopting 1, 2, and 3 AGPTs respectively), while materialised cost also increases (2.4%, 5.7%, and 6.6% for adopting 1, 2, and 3 AGPTs respectively). However, the positive effect on sales price and yield outweighs the increase in cost. The moderating effect analysis reveals that the sales channels influence the income-increasing effects of AGPT adoption. While agricultural professional managers have a positive moderating effect, e-commerce has a negative one. The adoption rate of AGPTs is positively influenced by the farmer's education level, health status, planting scale and cooperative membership. The results show regional variation and different income increases for farmers with different operating scales, indicating a need for tailored policy recommendations.

These findings demonstrate the economic viability of adopting AGPTs for citrus farmers in Sichuan Province. The significant positive relationship between AGPT adoption and income supports the argument for promoting these technologies to enhance farmers' livelihoods and contribute to sustainable agriculture. The mediating effect analysis reveals the mechanism through which these technologies impact income—improving both the quantity and quality of produce leading to higher yields and market prices. The moderating role of marketing channels highlights the importance of strategic market access for maximizing the benefits of AGPTs. The differing effects observed for farm scale and regions indicate the need for region and scale-specific strategies. This study contributes valuable insights into the economic and practical implications of AGPT adoption, informing evidence-based policy interventions to support sustainable agricultural development.

This study provides strong evidence for the positive impact of AGPT adoption on the income of citrus farmers in Sichuan Province, achieved primarily through increased yield and sales prices. The mediating and moderating effects identified highlight the importance of cost-benefit analysis and strategic market access. Future research could explore a wider range of AGPTs, different crops, and other developing country contexts to further generalize these findings. Further investigation into the long-term impacts of AGPTs, especially on environmental sustainability, is needed.

This study focuses on citrus farmers in Sichuan Province, limiting the generalizability of the findings to other crops or regions. The selection of AGPTs might also be considered a limitation, as other relevant technologies could exist. Future research should address these limitations by expanding the scope of the study to include a broader range of crops, regions, and AGPTs.