This paper investigates the distributional impacts of transport transition policies in Germany, focusing on transport poverty. A two-step methodology, combining principal component analysis (PCA) and latent class modeling (LCM), defines a transport poverty scale (TPS). The TPS classifies German households into four groups: transport-poor, car-dependent, sufficient, and independent. The car-dependent and transport-poor are identified as the most vulnerable to increased driving costs due to inelastic driving demand. Policy recommendations, including a redesigned commuter tax allowance and an optimized scrappage system, are proposed to mitigate the negative impacts on these groups and increase the acceptance of transport transition policies.

Andrea C. Rangel Guevara