Flash drought, characterized by unusually rapid drying, significantly impacts socioeconomic sectors, particularly agriculture. This study quantifies projected changes in flash drought frequency and cropland risk using global climate model simulations. Results show a global increase in flash drought occurrence across all scenarios, most sharply in those with higher radiative forcing and greater fossil fuel use. Cropland flash drought risk is expected to increase globally, with the largest increases projected in North America (32% in 2015 to 49% in 2100) and Europe (32% to 53%) under the most extreme emissions scenario. Lower-end and medium scenarios show a notable reduction in annual flash drought risk compared to high-end scenarios.

Jordan I. Christian, Elinor R. Martin, Jeffrey B. Basara, Jason C. Furtado, Jason A. Otkin, Lauren E. L. Lowman, Eric D. Hunt, Vimal Mishra, Xiangming Xiao