This study investigates the likelihood of experiencing end-of-century levels of extreme heat and drought in Europe in the near future. Using the Max Planck Institute Grand Ensemble (MPI-GE), the researchers find that even under moderate warming, end-of-century heat and drought levels could reach 1-in-10 likelihoods as early as the 2030s. By 2050-2074, two successive years of such extremes exceed 1-in-10 likelihoods, and Europe-wide 5-year megadroughts become plausible. The influence of North Atlantic variability is also highlighted, with a warm North Atlantic significantly increasing the likelihood of these extreme events.

Laura Suarez-Gutierrez, Wolfgang A. Müller, Jochem Marotzke