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Extreme heat and drought typical of an end-of-century climate could occur over Europe soon and repeatedly

Earth Sciences

Extreme heat and drought typical of an end-of-century climate could occur over Europe soon and repeatedly

L. Suarez-gutierrez, W. A. Müller, et al.

Discover the startling implications of climate change in Europe, as researchers Laura Suarez-Gutierrez, Wolfgang A. Müller, and Jochem Marotzke reveal that extreme heat and drought could become realities as early as the 2030s. With end-of-century heat and drought levels having a likelihood of 1-in-10, the results underscore an urgent need for action.

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Playback language: English
Abstract
This study investigates the likelihood of experiencing end-of-century levels of extreme heat and drought in Europe in the near future. Using the Max Planck Institute Grand Ensemble (MPI-GE), the researchers find that even under moderate warming, end-of-century heat and drought levels could reach 1-in-10 likelihoods as early as the 2030s. By 2050-2074, two successive years of such extremes exceed 1-in-10 likelihoods, and Europe-wide 5-year megadroughts become plausible. The influence of North Atlantic variability is also highlighted, with a warm North Atlantic significantly increasing the likelihood of these extreme events.
Publisher
Communications Earth & Environment
Published On
Nov 30, 2023
Authors
Laura Suarez-Gutierrez, Wolfgang A. Müller, Jochem Marotzke
Tags
climate change
extreme heat
drought
Europe
North Atlantic variability
megadroughts
Max Planck Institute
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