China's Electric Heating Policy (EHP), implemented since 2015 to replace coal-based home heating with electricity, has significantly improved air quality. However, this shift has sharply increased electricity demand and carbon emissions. The study uses a theoretical model to quantify the increased CO2 emissions, finding substantial increases (101.69–162.89 megatons in 2015, rising to 130.03–197.87 megatons in 2020). Urbanization is projected to slow this growth. The paper proposes low-carbon pathways, including integrating renewable energy and improving electric heating efficiency, supported by techno-economic analyses.

Jianxiao Wang, Haiwang Zhong, Zhifang Yang, Mu Wang, Daniel M. Kammen, Zhu Liu, Ziming Ma, Qing Xia, Chongqing Kang