Unveiling the nexus: exploring the influence of terrorism on energy trade in China and the Belt and Road countries

An examination of the scale of energy trade between China and the countries along the Belt and Road, as well as terrorist activities in these countries from 2008 to 2019, is conducted. Exploratory spatial data analysis reveals spatial and temporal evolution patterns. A spatial Durbin model identifies the impacts and spatial spillover effects of terrorist activities on China’s energy trade with these countries. Findings: Energy imports to China are concentrated in West Asia and North Africa, energy exports from China are concentrated in Southeast Asia, and terrorist activities concentrate in West Asia and North Africa, South Asia, and Central Asia. The terrorism index exerts a negative effect on China’s energy imports and shows a positive spatial spillover. The number of terrorist activities and deaths negatively affect China’s energy imports, with no spillover. The terrorism index does not affect China’s energy exports directly, but shows a negative spatial spillover; the spillovers of incidents and deaths on exports differ. Economic development, liner shipping connectivity, and energy export dependence of partner countries also significantly influence China’s energy trade.

Wenlong Yang, Wentian Shi, Dongcheng Chen