Economic losses from COVID-19 cases in the Philippines: a dynamic model of health and economic policy trade-offs

The COVID-19 pandemic forced governments to impose lockdowns and mobility restrictions to curb transmission. As economies reopen, policymakers face trade-offs between economic recovery and health measures that prevent overwhelming the health system. The authors develop a mathematical model extending a subnational SEIR to include two differential equations capturing economic losses due to infections and due to lockdowns in the Philippines. They assess the policy trade-off space by simulating 3‑month cumulative economic losses across 8 scenarios in 5 regions, including the National Capital Region (NCR), under the constraint that the average health-care utilisation rate (HCUR) remains below 70%, the government’s high-risk threshold. In NCR, a policy trade-off exists where the minimum cumulative economic losses amount to 10.66% of Gross Regional Domestic Product (GRDP). For regions non-adjacent to NCR, a trade-off-based policy does not apply. Across all regions, improving and expanding health system capacity is recommended to broaden policy space for easing lockdowns.

Elvira P. de Lara-Tuprio, Maria Regina Justina E. Estuar, Joselito T. Sescon, Cymon Kayle Lubangco, Rolly Czar Joseph T. Castillo, Timothy Robin Y. Teng, Lenard Paulo V. Tamayo, Jay Michael R. Macalalag, Gerome M. Vedeja