Europeans' support for refugees of varying background is stable over time

The past decade has witnessed major humanitarian crises in Europe, notably the Syrian refugee crisis (around 2.3 million asylum seekers in late 2015) and the Ukrainian refugee crisis (over eight million refugees in 2022). This study examines the impact of these repeated crises on European public attitudes towards refugees. Two competing hypotheses are explored: (1) increased European solidarity, potentially leading to greater welcome of refugees, and (2) growing wariness of increasing refugee numbers leading to reduced acceptance. The study specifically investigates whether the positive reception of Ukrainian refugees, potentially attributed to their perceived demographic and cultural similarity to Europeans, comes at the expense of support for other refugee groups, particularly those from Muslim backgrounds. Understanding public attitudes towards refugees is crucial as it influences policy in democratic countries. Previous research has identified economic, humanitarian, and religious factors affecting these attitudes, but there's a lack of research on how attitudes evolve over time in response to successive refugee influxes. This study uses survey experimental evidence to address these gaps.

Existing literature highlights the significant role of public opinion in shaping immigration and refugee policies. Studies have identified various factors influencing attitudes towards immigrants, such as economic concerns, humanitarian considerations, and religious differences. Research during the Syrian refugee crisis emphasized the importance of these factors in shaping European attitudes. However, limited research examines how attitudes change over time or how the arrival of refugees from one region impacts support for those from other regions. This study builds upon previous research by focusing on the temporal dynamics of public opinion concerning refugees in the context of multiple crises.

The researchers conducted large-scale public opinion surveys in 15 European countries during May-June 2022 (amidst the Ukrainian crisis) and 2016 (during the Syrian crisis). The 2022 survey included approximately 15,000 respondents, and the 2016 survey included approximately 18,000 respondents. Both surveys utilized a conjoint experiment, presenting participants with randomized profiles of asylum seekers varying across several attributes (country of origin, religion, reasons for migration, gender, age, occupation, vulnerabilities, language skills). This experimental design allows researchers to estimate the impact of each attribute on public support for asylum seeker admission. The 2022 survey included an additional ‘War’ level for the ‘Reason for migrating’ attribute. The data were weighted using entropy balancing to match demographic characteristics from each country's population. Additional weighting was used to account for political ideology. All main analyses were pre-specified in a preregistered analysis plan. The study uses both a forced-choice task and a rating task (1-7 scale) to assess preferences, with analyses comparing results using both approaches. Further analyses explored the impact of political ideology, age, education, and income on attitudes.

The study reveals remarkable stability in European preferences for asylum seekers' characteristics between 2016 and 2022. Attributes such as inconsistencies in asylum testimony, gender, age, occupation, vulnerabilities, religion, and language skills showed similar effects on support for admission in both survey waves. Specific findings include: * Significant negative effects for inconsistencies in asylum testimony, being male, older age, lack of previous employment, and being Muslim. * Positive effects for having a skilled profession, being a victim of torture, and fluency in the host country language. * Significant negative impact of economic reasons for migration compared to political or religious persecution. * A statistically significant positive effect for Ukrainian asylum seekers in 2022, but this effect was smaller in 2016 and less significant than the impact of other factors (religion, occupation). * The increase in support for Ukrainian asylum seekers in 2022 was partially driven by increased European solidarity sentiments. * Overall support for asylum seekers increased slightly from 2016 to 2022, contradicting the "boat is full" hypothesis. This increase was observed across most countries and for both Ukrainian and non-Ukrainian asylum seekers, indicating a lack of substitution effects. * The increase in support was observed across both left-wing and right-wing voters, although right-wing voters consistently showed lower overall support than left-wing voters. The study also found that the socio-demographic profile of Ukrainian refugees (predominantly female, younger, Christian, and highly educated) aligns with the pre-existing preferences for specific asylum seeker characteristics, suggesting that support for Ukrainian refugees is primarily due to these characteristics rather than solely due to a new attitudinal phenomenon.

The study's findings challenge the notion that repeated humanitarian crises lead to asylum fatigue and reduced public support for refugees. Instead, it suggests a remarkable stability in preferences for specific asylum seeker attributes and a slight increase in overall support. The significant support for Ukrainian refugees in 2022 appears largely driven by their characteristics aligning with existing preferences, rather than a fundamental shift in attitudes. The lack of substitution effects between Ukrainian and other refugee groups indicates a lack of zero-sum reasoning in public attitudes. This suggests that policy efforts to support Ukrainian refugees can coexist with support for other refugee groups. These findings are consistent with research demonstrating stability in general attitudes towards immigrants. The study’s findings also have implications for understanding the dynamics of public opinion on immigration and suggest a more resilient and less malleable public opinion than previously assumed.

This study demonstrates the remarkable stability of European public attitudes toward refugees across two major humanitarian crises. Despite repeated influxes and a rise in populism, overall support for asylum seekers has slightly increased. The positive reception of Ukrainian refugees is largely attributed to their demographic profile, which aligns with pre-existing preferences. Future research should explore the long-term stability of these attitudes and the potential impact of prolonged crises or policy changes. Investigating the role of specific communication strategies in shaping public opinion is also warranted.

The study's data were collected only during the 2015-2016 and 2022 crises, limiting the ability to track potential fluctuations between those periods. While validation tests support the measurement instrument, concerns about external validity remain inherent to survey research. The sample, while large and weighted to match national demographics, might not fully represent the entire European population.