Environmental governance is critical for mitigating human displacement due to weather-related disasters

Climate change is intensifying weather-related disasters, leading to increased disaster-induced displacement. Effective adaptation and resilience-building through environmental governance are crucial to mitigating this. Disaster displacement, as defined by the Nansen Initiative, forces people to leave their homes due to natural hazards. Weather-related events account for the vast majority of this displacement, significantly impacting sustainable development. Social and economic factors influence disaster preparedness and response, shaping community resilience. Internal displacement, primarily within national borders, allows for a comprehensive approach by national and local actors. Durable solutions require reinforced political commitment, strengthened capacity, and improved evidence, yet national preparedness and capacity remain inadequate despite international agreements such as the Paris Agreement and the Sendai Framework. This study examines the link between environmental governance and disaster displacement, aiming to test the proposition that capacity building in environmental governance is crucial for reducing displacement risk.

Existing literature examines the relationship between disasters, climate change, and internal displacement. Studies have shown a strong correlation between global warming and displacement risk, with water-related disasters being a primary cause of environmental migration, particularly in vulnerable regions like the Asia-Pacific and sub-Saharan Africa. Research highlights the negative correlation between socioeconomic conditions and internal displacement in various regions, emphasizing the impact on education, health, and income. While previous studies have focused on regional or local levels, this study provides a global perspective, addressing a gap in quantitative research focusing on displaced populations in the context of climate change.

This study utilizes a panel dataset of 92 countries from 2010 to 2020, drawing data from the Global Internal Displacement Database (GIDD) and the Notre Dame Global Adaptation Initiative (ND-GAIN) database. The ND-GAIN index measures environmental governance, including governance, economic, and social readiness. The study employs Granger non-causality tests to analyze the causal relationship between internal disaster displacement and environmental governance, considering various scales of weather-related disasters (all scales and small scales) and income groups (high, middle, and low). Prior to Granger causality tests, panel unit root tests (Levin-Lin-Chu, Im-Pesaran-Shin, and Augmented Dickey-Fuller) were conducted to ensure the stationarity of variables. The analysis utilizes equations to model the relationship between readiness and displacement, allowing for lagged effects. The study also addresses potential data distortion from large-scale historical catastrophes by conducting a separate analysis excluding such events. The optimal lag length is determined using the BIC criterion. The Wald test is used to determine the statistical significance of the results. Stata 17 software was used for the data analysis.

The Granger non-causality tests revealed a strong bidirectional relationship between disaster displacement and environmental governance (ND-GAIN readiness index) for both all-scale and small-scale weather-related disasters. For all-scale disasters, a higher percentage of displacement predicted higher readiness scores in the long run, primarily driven by economic readiness, and higher governance and social readiness in the short run. Conversely, higher readiness scores predicted a lower percentage of displacement in the subsequent years, primarily driven by economic and governance readiness. Analyzing data by income groups revealed that in higher-income countries, the relationship is primarily driven by governance readiness. In middle-income countries, both governance and economic readiness are crucial. In lower-income countries, all three readiness components are significant. For small-scale disasters, the relationship between overall readiness and disaster displacement was significant, with governance readiness playing a key role across all income groups. Economic readiness showed a consistently negative feedback coefficient on displacement across income groups, indicating that post-disaster economic investments reduce future displacement. Social readiness showed varying effects depending on the income group and scale of disaster.

The findings strongly support the hypothesis that effective environmental governance is crucial in mitigating disaster displacement. The bidirectional relationship highlights the dynamic interaction between governance capacity and displacement events. Post-disaster recovery and adaptation efforts, influenced by economic, governance, and social readiness, can positively affect future resilience and reduce displacement. The income group analysis reveals that the most effective strategies vary based on a country's development level, indicating the need for tailored approaches. The importance of governance readiness across all income groups underscores the need for strong and capable institutions. Enhancing economic readiness is particularly crucial in middle and low-income countries to improve adaptation capacity and recovery efforts. Social readiness plays a significant role, especially in low-income countries, where comprehensive disaster management strategies that address both social and economic conditions are essential.

This study demonstrates a strong bidirectional relationship between environmental governance and disaster displacement, highlighting the importance of strengthening governance, economic, and social readiness to mitigate displacement risks. The findings suggest targeted strategies based on income level, emphasizing governance readiness across all groups and economic readiness for middle and low-income countries. Future research should explore the mechanisms driving these relationships, including governance vulnerability to displacement shocks and the role of governance in disaster reduction.

The study relies on available data from GIDD and ND-GAIN, which might have limitations in data completeness and accuracy. The causal inference from Granger causality tests should be interpreted cautiously as correlation does not equal causation. The study focuses on weather-related disasters, excluding other factors that might contribute to displacement.