Dynamic analysis and application of network structure control in risk conduction in the industrial chain

According to control theory, a dynamical system is controllable if, with a suitable choice of inputs, it can be driven from any initial state to any desired final state within a finite time. Most dynamic characteristics of real networks are nonlinear, so achieving target control is more practical and necessary. The network’s control energy is also a problem that must be considered. Whether and how to control the complex system of the industrial chain has high theoretical and practical significance. In this study, we use the GARCH model, DCC model, and network structure control theory comprehensively to study the price fluctuation risk of the mining stock market from the perspective of the industry chain and network control dynamics and obtain interesting results. (1) Risk conduction among stocks has a prominent industry-driving effect, and the risk conduction ability of upper and middle stocks is stronger. (2) The risk regulation cost, time cost, and node number cost of the whole-industry chain are all higher than those of the two-tier chain, which indicates that the correlation complexity of the network has a positive relationship with risk control. (3) Key risk nodes play an essential role in risk control, so monitoring key stocks from the industrial chain perspective is necessary to control risks in time. This work can provide valuable suggestions for market regulators and policy-makers in terms of risk management and control.

Xian Xi, Xiangyun Gao, Xiaotian Sun, Huiling Zheng, Congcong Wu