Delayed emergence of a global temperature response after emission mitigation

This paper investigates the timeframe for observing a significant change in global mean surface temperature (GMST) following strong mitigation of individual climate forcers. While CO2 mitigation offers the most substantial long-term benefits, it requires very strong mitigation for rapid measurable effects. Black carbon (BC) mitigation shows rapid discernible impacts but limited long-term gains. Methane mitigation offers a balance between short- and long-term effects. For other gases or aerosols, discernible impacts are unlikely before mid-century, even with complete emission removal.

B. H. Samset, J. S. Fuglestvedt, M. T. Lund