Projected rapid response of stratospheric temperature to | ResearchBunny

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Abstract

This paper investigates the projected near-term global temperature trends at the surface and in the stratosphere using large ensemble climate models under three emission scenarios. It finds that under rapid emission cuts (SSP1-1.9), stratospheric cooling trends become detectably weaker within 5 years compared to a scenario representing current commitments (SSP2-4.5). Therefore, stratospheric temperature trends could serve as an early indicator of climate mitigation effectiveness.

Publisher

Nature Communications

Published On

Aug 03, 2024

Authors

Grasiele Romanzini-Bezerra, Amanda C. Maycock

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