Credential inflation and employment of university faculty in China

Since the mid-20th century, higher education has transitioned from elite to mass education worldwide. This expansion, coupled with a disproportionate increase in graduates compared to available academic positions, has led to credential inflation—employers demanding higher qualifications than previously needed. This phenomenon is particularly intense in competitive academic labor markets, exemplified by the increasing difficulty of securing tenure-track positions in American research universities without postdoctoral experience. The study focuses on China, where higher education expansion has intensified competition for scarce positions in prestigious universities, especially since the introduction of Project 211 (1992), Project 985 (1998), and the Double First-Class initiative (2015). These initiatives, while aiming to improve higher education, have inadvertently increased the demand for highly qualified faculty. While factors such as prior degree level, academic relationships, and personal connections influence faculty recruitment, the reputation and ranking of the candidates' academic institutions remain primary determinants. The rapid increase in Chinese students studying abroad also adds to the competition, as overseas qualifications are often highly valued. This study aims to empirically examine credential inflation in Chinese university faculty recruitment, focusing on the degree of inflation, variation across university types, and differences between domestic and overseas qualifications.

The literature review highlights the intensified competition for academic positions in Chinese universities, stemming from higher education expansion and ambitious national educational goals. The devaluation of degrees in the academic job market is noted, with a PhD becoming an increasingly essential requirement. The 'involution' phenomenon in Chinese academia is referenced, characterized by fierce competition for publications and positions. The literature discusses the impact of the expansion of higher education on the academic labor market, resulting in increased competition. The preference for candidates from prestigious universities (985 and 211 projects) is discussed, along with the growing recognition of international mobility in academic careers. A key observation is the preference for overseas-trained talents, particularly returnees, even if domestically trained candidates have significant achievements. This preference necessitates further exploration of whether credential inflation equally applies to overseas qualifications.

The study utilized 159,752 resumes of full-time university faculty in mainland China collected over eight years (2015-2022), combining web scraping and manual data collection. The data included personal information, academic background, and employment history. Universities were categorized into 985, 211, and ordinary universities based on their ranking. Data analysis involved descriptive statistics, analyzing the distribution of degrees across different university types and over time. The study also employed regression analysis to explore the relationship between the highest degree, university rankings during different education stages, and the ranking of the university where the faculty first worked after graduation. Propensity score matching (PSM) was used to compare the employment outcomes of faculty with and without overseas education experiences, controlling for various factors to account for selection bias. Specifically, the k-nearest neighbor matching method was used for the PSM analysis. The study also employed threshold regression to investigate potential threshold effects of academic background and time on the ranking of the employed universities, further examining the relationship between the highest degree and employment outcomes.

The analysis of faculty resumes revealed a clear trend towards credential inflation, especially for domestically educated faculty in elite universities (particularly 211 universities). The proportion of faculty with only Bachelor's or Master's degrees has decreased significantly over time, with a PhD becoming the standard. For PhD holders, the quality of their academic background (undergraduate, master's, and doctoral institutions) significantly impacts their employment ranking, with those graduating from higher-ranked universities securing positions at better institutions. Figure 1 shows how this trend increased the quality of institutions for doctoral degrees over time. The ranking of universities where faculty members earned their degrees has increased over time (Figure 2), showcasing a clear trend. Figure 3 and Figure 4 show that from 1990 to 2022, there is a general decline in the ranking (higher number means lower rank) of the employed universities, although the ranking of those who graduated from more elite universities remain higher. Regression analyses showed that PhD holders from 985 and 211 universities during their undergraduate studies had higher-ranking jobs than those from ordinary universities. The year of doctoral graduation was significantly positively correlated with the employed university's ranking, indicating credential inflation is accelerating. Threshold regression revealed a double threshold effect of the graduation year (2008 and 2014) on the impact of academic background on employment outcomes; the effect was stronger after 2008 and even more so after 2014. PSM analysis demonstrated a significant advantage for those with overseas education, indicating no devaluation of overseas qualifications. This advantage consistently increased over time and varied across different university types. This advantage ranged from ~3-32 places in university ranking, depending on the year and type of university.

The findings address the research question by providing strong evidence for credential inflation among domestically educated Chinese university faculty. The increasing significance of the graduation year in predicting employment outcomes reinforces the accelerating nature of this phenomenon. The contrasting results for overseas-educated faculty highlight the persistent value of international qualifications in the Chinese academic job market. This suggests that Chinese universities are increasingly prioritizing candidates with strong backgrounds from elite domestic or international institutions. The results have implications for policies aimed at improving the quality of higher education in China, suggesting a need to address the increasing pressure on early-career academics and potential gender biases. The study contributes to the literature on credential inflation by providing empirical evidence from the specific context of Chinese academia, offering insights into the dynamics of a rapidly evolving higher education system.

This study provides substantial evidence of credential inflation in Chinese university faculty recruitment, particularly for domestically educated candidates. The findings highlight the growing importance of academic background from elite institutions and the sustained value of overseas education. Future research should explore the long-term implications of these trends, including the potential impact on academic diversity and the effectiveness of policies aimed at mitigating credential inflation. The study also highlights the need for institutional reforms to create a more equitable and supportive environment for early-career academics.

The study relies on self-reported data from publicly available resumes, which may be subject to biases in self-presentation. The reliance on a specific university ranking system may also limit the generalizability of the findings. Future studies could employ more comprehensive data collection methods and incorporate multiple ranking systems to address these limitations. The study also acknowledged that the sample size limitation may have affected results from the analysis in the later stages.