The COVID-19 pandemic profoundly disrupted global mobility patterns. While research has focused on the increased vulnerabilities of displaced populations, the pandemic curtailed virtually all migration flows due to reduced economic opportunities and mobility restrictions. This study aims to understand the mechanisms through which the pandemic affected individual migration decisions using the aspiration-ability framework. This framework posits that migration decisions are a function of both the aspiration to migrate and the ability to do so, shaped by the broader context. The study identifies three key mechanisms: (1) direct impacts of barriers to movement (travel restrictions and border closures); (2) impacts on individual economic circumstances affecting mobility; and (3) impacts on aspirations to move. Previous research often focuses on the vulnerabilities of specific migrant groups, often the most vulnerable, hindering a broader understanding of the pandemic's effects on migration decisions across the spectrum of populations. By employing this framework and focusing on both structural factors (context) and individual agency (aspirations and abilities), this study seeks a comprehensive analysis of pandemic impacts on migration.

Existing literature highlights the increased vulnerabilities of migrants during the pandemic, particularly focusing on specific groups like labor migrants, students, and those in informal settlements. Studies show significant impacts on livelihoods, affecting migration aspirations and decisions. However, the literature often lacks a comparative analysis across diverse urban contexts and socioeconomic groups. This study addresses this gap by examining a broader range of populations and comparing experiences across various settings. The existing research reveals how the pandemic exacerbated pre-existing inequalities for migrants, particularly impacting those lacking formal social protection and facing social marginalization. The biosecurity framing of public health responses has further marginalized migrant populations. The economic downturns associated with pandemic control measures have also been shown to alter migration processes, with both short-term and long-term impacts.

This study uses a qualitative research design to capture the diverse experiences of migrants and non-migrants in six cities across four continents: Accra, Amsterdam, Brussels, Dhaka, Maputo, and Worcester. The cities were selected to ensure variation in terms of migration trajectories, population size, and economic development. The data were collected through semi-structured interviews conducted between June and September 2020 with 47 participants. The participants were purposively selected to ensure diversity in socioeconomic characteristics, migration experiences (international, internal, and non-migrants), and occupations. The interviews explored the participants' migration histories, their experiences during the pandemic, and their aspirations and decisions regarding future mobility. The interviews were conducted remotely using video calls or mobile phones due to pandemic restrictions. The data were transcribed, translated into English, and analyzed using a hybrid approach of inductive and deductive thematic coding with the software QDA Miner. The analysis focuses on identifying the three mechanisms (barriers to movement, ability to move, and aspirations to move) through which the pandemic affected individual mobility decision-making.

The study reveals common impacts across diverse geographical contexts. Movement restrictions, fear of contracting the virus, and obligations to stay to protect family members were significant barriers to mobility decisions. These barriers impacted migration aspirations and decisions, ranging from immobility to reconsiderations of long-term migration plans. Differences emerged across socioeconomic groups. Higher-income international migrants experienced limited impact from movement restrictions but struggled with decision paralysis regarding their future steps. Lower-income migrants, conversely, faced barriers related to financial hardship and travel restrictions. The pandemic also affected the abilities to move. Lower-income groups frequently experienced involuntary immobility due to financial constraints and movement restrictions, further marginalizing them. Higher-income individuals experienced less economic impact but still faced constrained choice. Regarding aspirations to move, higher-income migrants aspired to continue their migration trajectories or make new plans, while lower-income migrants were more inclined to postpone or alter their plans due to economic concerns. The study also identifies the emergence of new factors influencing migration destinations, such as a preference for 'safer' areas regarding COVID-19 risks or a shift toward greener areas. Non-migrants' experiences were also varied, with higher-income individuals having more choice and agency in their mobility decisions than their lower-income counterparts.

The findings underscore how the COVID-19 pandemic and associated responses disproportionately impacted low-income populations, exacerbating existing inequalities. The study's framework of aspiration and ability reveals the interplay between structural factors (restrictions, economic shocks) and individual agency in shaping migration decisions. The results highlight the need for policies that address both the structural barriers limiting mobility and the diverse needs and aspirations of migrant populations. The study also underlines the significant role of biosecurity concerns in shaping mobility decisions during the pandemic. The pandemic's effects on the ability to maintain livelihoods and plan for the future were pervasive, yet manifested differently based on socioeconomic status. The increased precarity of place among migrants, regardless of their income level, reveals vulnerabilities that may require targeted policy interventions.

This study demonstrates how COVID-19 responses significantly curtailed mobility and migration, revealing disparities across socioeconomic groups. The aspiration-ability framework effectively demonstrates the interconnectedness of structural limitations and individual agency in shaping migration decisions. Future research should explore the long-term consequences of the pandemic on migration patterns and investigate the effectiveness of policy interventions aimed at promoting resilient and inclusive urban environments.

The study's relatively small sample size limits the generalizability of the findings. The reliance on self-reported data might introduce biases. Future research with larger samples and mixed-methods approaches is needed to validate and expand upon these findings.