Confidence in organic food: a cross-country choice based conjoint analysis of credibility factors

The study addresses how consumers assess the credibility of organic foods, which are credence goods where production methods and absence of pesticides are not directly observable. In contexts with historically low institutional trust (e.g., Hungary and Poland), credible certification and labeling are crucial to support trust and market development. Barriers to organic market growth include high prices and skepticism about authenticity due to fraud and mislabeling. The research aims to quantify the effects of product-specific (e.g., packaging, price, appearance, communication) and external factors (e.g., place of purchase, country of origin with certification logos) on perceived credibility. Hypotheses: H1) Local products are more credible than imported; H2) Environmentally friendly packaging and natural appearance increase credibility; H3) Lower-priced organic products are perceived as less credible; H4) Credibility is lower when sold in a conventional supermarket. Research questions: RQ1) Which factor most influences credibility? RQ2) Are there differences between Hungarian and Polish consumers?

Prior research links trust and credibility in organic food, highlighting low institutional trust in former socialist countries. Identified barriers include high price and low credibility. Certification and logos can create trust but may be insufficient alone, especially in Central and Eastern Europe. Country of origin matters: products from developing countries are often perceived as less credible than those from Western countries, and ethnocentrism can shape these perceptions. Packaging has been underexplored; plastic is often viewed as less credible or less environmentally friendly, while natural-looking packaging can enhance perceptions. Processed organic foods may evoke skepticism; product appearance and clear, accurate claims may help. Retailer image and online information richness influence perceived credibility, with potential skepticism toward products sold in superstores.

Design: Online choice-based conjoint (CBC) survey presenting pairs of hypothetical products; respondents chose which they trusted more to be truly organic. Product: rice, chosen for wide familiarity and relevance of attributes. Attributes and levels: Packaging (paper; plastic; without package); Appearance (brown; white); Communication (claim: “From controlled organic farming”; without claim); Country of origin + organic logo (Hungary + EU organic logo; USA + USDA organic logo; India + India Organic logo); Price per kg (low: 999 HUF/12 PLN ≈ €2.5; average: 1399 HUF/17 PLN ≈ €3.5; high: 2499 HUF/29 PLN ≈ €6); Place of purchase (organic market; online; supermarket). Survey construction: Full factorial generated in R (AlgDesign), reduced via orthogonal design to 16 paired choice sets. Question prompt: choose which product is more credibly organic. Model: Conditional logit estimated in R using clogit() (survival package). Random utility framework: utility split into systematic component (attributes) and random error; interactions between attributes and individual characteristics were tested. Additional measures: frequency of organic purchases; logo knowledge (EU, USDA, India Organic); food responsibility (Brunsø et al., 2021); willingness to pay (WTP) for organic (Wang et al., 2020); ethnocentrism (Klein et al., 2006); demographics (gender, age, education, residence, perceived income). Data collection: Hungary via social media (Oct 14–Dec 7, 2021): 723 responses, 652 analyzed (excluded those always choosing “I trust neither”). Poland via Prolific (June 20–22, 2022): 299 responses, 290 analyzed. Samples not population-representative; Hungarian sample skewed female and higher education; Polish sample skewed male and younger; similar residence and income distributions.

Descriptive: About one-third in both countries buy organic once or twice per month; ~14% almost never; ~10% frequent buyers. EU logo most known, India Organic least; Hungarian respondents showed higher logo knowledge and higher scores on food responsibility, price sensitivity, and ethnocentrism scales. Hungarian sample (conditional logit): Country of origin most influential. Hungary + EU logo increased credibility (coef 0.681; Exp=1.975; p<0.001). USA + USDA decreased credibility vs India (coef -0.152; Exp=0.859; p<0.001). Packaging second most important: Paper increased credibility (coef 0.515; Exp=1.673; p<0.001); Plastic decreased credibility vs no package (coef -0.377; Exp=0.686; p<0.001). Appearance: Brown increased credibility (coef 0.236; Exp=1.266; p<0.001). Communication: Claim increased credibility (coef 0.167; Exp=1.181; p<0.001). Price: Low decreased (coef -0.229; Exp=0.795; p<0.001); High increased (coef 0.107; Exp=1.113; p<0.001). Place of purchase: Organic market increased (coef 0.149; Exp=1.161; p<0.001); Online decreased vs supermarket (coef -0.265; Exp=0.767; p<0.001). Polish sample (conditional logit): Most influential attributes were packaging, appearance, and place of purchase. Packaging: Paper increased credibility (coef 0.593; Exp=1.810; p<0.001); Plastic strongly decreased vs no package (coef -1.035; Exp=0.355; p<0.001). Appearance: Brown increased (coef 0.294; Exp=1.341; p<0.001). Place of purchase: Organic market increased (coef 0.255; Exp=1.290; p<0.001); Online decreased vs supermarket (coef -0.350; Exp=0.705; p<0.001). Country of origin: Hungary + EU increased (coef 0.214; Exp=1.239; p<0.001); USA + USDA decreased vs India (coef -0.254; Exp=0.775; p<0.001). Price: Low decreased (coef -0.320; Exp=0.726; p<0.001); High not significant (coef 0.036; Exp=1.036; ns). Communication: Claim not significant (coef -0.028; Exp=0.972; ns). Interactions and heterogeneity: Greater EU logo knowledge increased credibility of EU-labeled products (both countries). In Poland, EU logo knowledge also associated with higher credibility for paper-packaged brown rice. Higher USDA logo knowledge increased credibility of USDA-labeled products relative to India and increased credibility of brown rice, but reduced credibility of organic market as place of purchase. Greater India logo knowledge in Poland increased credibility of organic market and reduced credibility of USA/EU origins; in Hungary, higher India logo knowledge reduced credibility of EU logo and increased weight on appearance. Ethnocentrism: Hungarians with higher ethnocentrism placed higher credibility on Hungarian origin; Polish ethnocentric respondents placed significantly less credibility on Hungary + EU origin, but favored paper packaging at organic markets and distrusted online. Frequent organic buyers in Poland favored brown rice; in Hungary they favored domestic origin and organic market. Young Hungarians were less influenced by country of origin and high price, yet showed higher credibility when price was higher; young Poles weighted appearance more. Overall ranking: Hungary—country of origin most important, then packaging, then appearance; Poland—packaging and appearance lead, then place of purchase; country of origin and price still significant but less influential. RQ1: Country of origin, packaging, and appearance are the strongest drivers; price and place of purchase matter as well. RQ2: Patterns are broadly similar across countries, with differences in relative importance and in the significance of price high level and communication claim (non-significant in Poland).

Findings align with prior literature on the importance of origin and certification, and extend knowledge by showing strong effects of packaging and product appearance on credibility. Knowledge of certification logos enhances perceived credibility of products bearing those logos, underscoring the role of consumer education. H1 is supported: local (Hungarian) origin increased credibility among Hungarian respondents; Polish respondents still rated Hungary + EU higher than imports though not as strongly as Hungarians. H2 is supported: natural-looking paper packaging and brown rice appearance increased credibility in both samples. H3 is supported in both samples for low price reducing credibility; high price increased credibility only in Hungary and was not significant in Poland. H4 is supported in the sense that organic market settings increased credibility relative to supermarkets, while online channels reduced credibility; supermarkets were not the most credible setting. The results answer RQ1 by identifying origin/packaging/appearance as the key drivers and RQ2 by showing largely similar patterns across Hungary and Poland with some differences in attribute salience and subgroup effects. These findings suggest practical implications for producers and retailers: emphasize credible origins and certification, use environmentally friendly, natural-looking packaging, highlight natural product cues, and leverage trusted retail environments (e.g., farmers’/organic markets).

The study advances understanding of credibility determinants for organic foods using a cross-country CBC design. Packaging (particularly natural paper), product appearance (brown rice), and country of origin/certification significantly shape credibility perceptions; price (especially unusually low prices) and place of purchase also matter. Consumers’ knowledge of organic logos enhances credibility assessments, indicating that education and clear labeling can build trust. Results are largely consistent across Hungary and Poland despite sample differences, suggesting transferability of key credibility drivers across similar cultural contexts. Future research should test additional product categories and conduct field studies to validate effects in real purchasing environments and to examine potential price premiums and other attributes not included here.

Samples are not representative and differ demographically between countries, limiting generalizability. Conjoint tasks present attribute bundles, so interactions among attributes may influence choices; only a limited attribute set was tested, and some attributes may be product-specific. Origin was presented with corresponding logos, and familiarity with logos varied, potentially confounding origin effects. Online data collection constrained the depiction of purchase environments. The study measures credibility rather than purchase behavior or willingness to pay directly, limiting managerial translation. Focusing on one staple (rice) may limit applicability to other categories; real-world settings may yield different results.