Comparative effectiveness over time of the mRNA-1273 (Moderna) vaccine and the BNT162b2 (Pfizer-BioNTech) vaccine

Real-world analysis of the incidence of SARS-CoV-2 infection post vaccination is important in determining the comparative effectiveness of the available vaccines. In this retrospective cohort study using deidentified administrative claims for Medicare Advantage and commercially insured individuals in a research database we examine over 3.5 million fully vaccinated individuals, including 8,848 individuals with SARS-CoV-2 infection, with a follow-up period between 14 and 151 days after their second dose. Our primary outcome was the rate of Covid-19 infection occurring at 30, 60, and 90 days at least 14 days after the second dose of either the mRNA-1273 vaccine or the BNT162b2 vaccine. Sub-analyses included the incidence of hospitalization, ICU admission, and death/hospice transfer. Separate analysis was conducted for individuals above and below age 65 and those without a prior diagnosis of Covid-19. We show that immunization with mRNA-1273, compared to BNT162b2, provides slightly more protection against SARS-CoV-2 infection that reaches statistical significance at 90 days with a number needed to vaccinate of ≥290. There are no differences in vaccine effectiveness for protection against hospitalization, ICU admission, or death/hospice transfer (aOR 1.23, 95% CI (0.67, 2.25)).

Nazmul Islam, Natalie E. Sheils, Megan S. Jarvis, Kenneth Cohen