The rate of sea level rise (SLR) along the Southeast Coast of the U.S. increased significantly after 2010. This study uses observations and climate models to show that this rapid increase is due to multidecadal buoyancy-driven Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) variations and heat transport convergence from wind-driven ocean circulation changes. An initialized decadal prediction system can provide skillful regional SLR predictions induced by AMOC variations 5 years in advance, while wind-driven sea level variations are predictable 2 years in advance. The rate of coastal SLR and its associated flooding risk are potentially predictable on multiyear timescales.

Liping Zhang, Thomas L. Delworth, Xiaosong Yang, Fanrong Zeng, Qinxue Gu, Shouwei Li