This paper analyzes the macroeconomic effects of adapting to high-end sea-level rise (SLR) projections until 2050, considering both coastal protection and migration. The study finds that combining protection and migration can lower macroeconomic costs compared to protection alone, with migration being less costly than protection in some developing regions. Future costs are dominated by accumulated effects over time, highlighting the need for immediate adaptation. The paper also emphasizes the importance of including autonomous adaptation in reference scenarios to avoid overestimating adaptation benefits.

Gabriel Bachner, Daniel Lincke, Jochen Hinkel