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Causes and multiyear predictability of the rapid acceleration of U.S. Southeast Sea level rise after 2010

Earth Sciences

Causes and multiyear predictability of the rapid acceleration of U.S. Southeast Sea level rise after 2010

L. Zhang, T. L. Delworth, et al.

This research reveals the intriguing acceleration of sea level rise along the Southeast Coast of the U.S., driven by significant shifts in ocean circulation and buoyancy effects. Conducted by Liping Zhang, Thomas L. Delworth, Xiaosong Yang, Fanrong Zeng, Qinxue Gu, and Shouwei Li, the study demonstrates the potential for skilled regional predictions of sea level rise up to five years in advance, shedding light on future coastal flooding risks.

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Playback language: English
Abstract
The rate of sea level rise (SLR) along the Southeast Coast of the U.S. increased significantly after 2010. This study uses observations and climate models to show that this rapid increase is due to multidecadal buoyancy-driven Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) variations and heat transport convergence from wind-driven ocean circulation changes. An initialized decadal prediction system can provide skillful regional SLR predictions induced by AMOC variations 5 years in advance, while wind-driven sea level variations are predictable 2 years in advance. The rate of coastal SLR and its associated flooding risk are potentially predictable on multiyear timescales.
Publisher
npj Climate and Atmospheric Science
Published On
May 24, 2024
Authors
Liping Zhang, Thomas L. Delworth, Xiaosong Yang, Fanrong Zeng, Qinxue Gu, Shouwei Li
Tags
sea level rise
Atlantic meridional overturning circulation
climate models
coastal flooding
ocean circulation
prediction system

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