Causes and multiyear predictability of the rapid acceleration of U.S. Southeast Sea level rise after 2010

The rate of sea level rise (SLR) along the U.S. Southeast Coast (USSEC) increased markedly after 2010. While anthropogenic forcing accelerates global mean SLR, regional rates are strongly influenced by internal variability. Using observations and climate models, the study shows that the rapid post-2010 increase along the USSEC is partly driven by multidecadal, buoyancy-driven Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) variations together with heat transport convergence arising from wind-driven circulation changes. An initialized decadal prediction system provides skillful regional SLR predictions associated with AMOC variations up to 5 years in advance, while wind-driven sea level variations are predictable up to 2 years ahead. These results suggest the rate of coastal SLR and associated flooding risk along the USSEC are potentially predictable on multiyear timescales.

Liping Zhang, Thomas L. Delworth, Xiaosong Yang, Fanrong Zeng, Qinxue Gu, Shouwei Li