Caught in the crossfire: biodiversity conservation paradox of sociopolitical conflict

Biodiversity loss, extinction risk mitigation, and the preservation of intact ecosystems depend on accurate biodiversity data to inform conservation priorities. Despite global progress in cataloguing species, significant knowledge gaps persist, particularly in developing economies where funding, capacity, and security constraints limit data collection. Armed and sociopolitical conflicts alter social stability and undermine environmental governance, and have well-documented impacts on ecosystems and species. Many major conflicts since 1950 have occurred in or near biodiversity hotspots, compounding conservation challenges. In the Philippines, and especially in Mindanao—an ecologically rich and economically important region—decades of sociopolitical conflict may impede biodiversity documentation and conservation action. This study investigates how conflict intensity relates to biodiversity knowledge shortfalls in Mindanao, testing whether higher conflict correlates with lower species occurrence records and richness, and reduced forest cover, and proposing strategies to mitigate these shortfalls in conflict-affected areas.

Prior work links armed conflict to environmental degradation, including deforestation, habitat loss, and wildlife declines (e.g., Vietnam War defoliation; draining of Mesopotamian marshes; declines during conflicts in the DRC; ongoing impacts in Afghanistan, Syria, and Ukraine). Analyses indicate that the majority of major armed conflicts have occurred in biodiversity hotspots and often within them, highlighting spatial overlap between conflict and conservation priorities. Conflict can degrade governance, hinder enforcement, and complicate conservation implementation. Legal and policy frameworks for biodiversity conservation inadequately address operations in conflict zones, prompting calls to integrate international environmental and humanitarian law principles and to adopt conflict-sensitive conservation. Despite global recognition, Philippine case studies empirically linking conflict to biodiversity knowledge gaps are limited, and Mindanao remains under-surveyed compared to other regions, exacerbating the biodiversity knowledge shortfalls.

Study area: Mindanao, Philippines. Temporal scope: 2000–2021. Data sources: biodiversity occurrence records were compiled from the MOFIBOTS database; conflict-related data for the Philippines were obtained from UN OCHA. Biodiversity data included records across multiple taxonomic groups (insects, arachnids, fishes, amphibians, reptiles, birds, mammals). Species occurrence data were standardised by dividing counts by dataset duration. Provinces were categorized into low (<10 conflicts per year) and high (>10 conflicts per year) conflict levels. Differences in average species richness per year between low- and high-conflict provinces were tested using the Mann–Whitney U test. To assess spatial associations, distances (km) from species occurrence records to the nearest conflict event were computed using QGIS (join attributes by nearest). A Poisson generalised linear model (GLM) in Jamovi (GAML module) was used to model provincial-level species richness as a function of conflict event frequency, average distance from conflict events, and taxonomic group; candidate models were compared using corrected AIC and Akaike weights. For habitat context, conflict event distributions were mapped across habitat types and protected areas, and correlations were examined between conflict fatality density and forest variables (e.g., tree cover), alongside the share of conflict events occurring in agricultural lands, grasslands, and protected areas.

• From 2000 to 2021, 2,174 conflict events (≈103.52 per year) were recorded in Mindanao; the highest levels were in Sulu (mean ≈ 82 annually; 18%) and Maguindanao (mean ≈ 329 annually; 15%).
• Observed species richness was significantly lower in high-conflict areas (mean 0.50 ± 1.60) than in low-conflict areas (mean 1.27 ± 2.37); Mann–Whitney U = 1340, p = 0.0027.
• Best GLM for provincial species records: species record ~ 1 + conflict events + average distance from conflict events + taxonomic group (AIC = 7866.53).
  • Conflict events had a negative association with species richness (β = -0.002, p < 0.0001).
  • Average distance from conflict events had a positive association (β = 0.003, p < 0.0001).
  • Stronger associations for insects (β = 2.067, p < 0.0001) and birds (β = 1.545, p < 0.0001).
• Conflict distribution across habitats differed significantly (χ² = 716.4, df not stated, p ≈ 0.0001). Most conflicts occurred in open habitats: agricultural areas (61%) and grasslands (19%); only 6% occurred within protected areas (2000–2021).
• Negative correlations were observed between fatality/threat density and tree cover (Pearson’s r = -0.05, p = 0.013) and between conflict and tree cover (%) (r = -0.04, p = 0.054), indicating reduced forest cover with higher conflict-related impacts.

The study demonstrates that sociopolitical conflict is associated with shortfalls in biodiversity knowledge and reduced observed richness in Mindanao. Areas with higher conflict frequency and proximity constraints show fewer occurrence records and lower species richness, with birds and insects exhibiting stronger responses—likely due to their detectability and greater sampling focus. Reduced field access and safety risks in high-conflict zones hamper surveys, potentially underrepresenting true biodiversity and complicating conservation assessments. Spatial analyses also suggest that higher conflict relates to reduced tree cover, supporting the interpretation that conflict contributes to ecosystem degradation. While the findings align with global literature on conflict-driven habitat loss and wildlife decline, causality warrants caution due to potential confounding factors (e.g., human displacement, land-use changes). Effective conservation in conflict-affected regions requires integrating conflict-sensitive approaches, reinforcing governance, and coordinating among conservationists, policymakers, and humanitarian actors. The proposed strategies (e.g., FAIR regional databases, crisis mapping, eDNA/barcoding, remote sensing, drones/camera traps, wildlife corridors, peace parks, adaptive planning, selective military partnerships with safeguards, and citizen science) can help mitigate knowledge gaps and strengthen post-conflict conservation outcomes.

This work provides initial, Philippines-based empirical evidence that sociopolitical conflict is linked to lower species richness, fewer occurrence records, and reduced forest cover in Mindanao, highlighting a biodiversity knowledge shortfall in conflict zones. The study advances understanding of how security risks constrain monitoring and conservation, and outlines practical, conflict-sensitive strategies to address data gaps and improve management. Policy implications include integrating conservation into national security strategies, strengthening environmental governance, and leveraging post-conflict reconstruction for ecosystem restoration, aligned with international frameworks such as the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework. Future research should develop robust pre/post-conflict baselines, quantify accessibility constraints, and further disentangle causal mechanisms linking conflict intensity, land-use change, and biodiversity outcomes.

• Causality cannot be firmly established; observed associations may be influenced by unmeasured confounders (e.g., displacement, concurrent land-use change).
• Lack of comprehensive pre- and post-conflict baseline biodiversity data limits assessment of true biodiversity change versus survey effort effects.
• Field survey bias due to safety/access constraints may underrepresent biodiversity in high-conflict areas and skew taxonomic coverage toward more detectable groups.
• Some habitat and forest structure metrics are indirectly inferred and may be limited by data resolution and completeness.
• Provincial-level aggregation may mask finer-scale patterns and heterogeneity within provinces.