Caught in the crossfire: biodiversity conservation paradox of sociopolitical conflict

The global biodiversity crisis is exacerbated by human-induced environmental changes and unforeseen challenges. Effective conservation is hampered by knowledge gaps, especially in developing nations like the Philippines. This study addresses the insufficient biodiversity knowledge in conflict-ridden areas, focusing on Mindanao, a biodiversity hotspot in the Philippines. Mindanao's unique geographical history and fertile landmass make it a major agricultural producer and home to significant biodiversity, including globally threatened species. However, six decades of conflict have significantly impacted the region's environment and the ability to collect and analyze biodiversity data. The study aims to understand the relationship between sociopolitical conflict and biodiversity knowledge shortfalls in Mindanao, highlighting the multifaceted and complex nature of this issue. The UN's recognition of the need to prevent environmental exploitation during war highlights the urgency of addressing this problem, particularly in developing economies where biodiversity capacity building is insufficient. The research further explores the direct and indirect impacts of conflict on biodiversity, including habitat destruction, disruption of research activities, and limitations on access to conflict zones. This research establishes a crucial baseline for understanding the complex interplay between conflict and biodiversity conservation in the Philippines, specifically in Mindanao.

Existing literature highlights armed conflicts as significant threats to national security and biodiversity. Studies demonstrate the environmental damage caused by wars, including habitat destruction and wildlife population declines, exemplified by events such as the Vietnam War, the Gulf War, and conflicts in the Democratic Republic of Congo. A significant portion of major armed conflicts (over 90%) between 1950 and 2000 occurred in biodiversity hotspots, often directly within these hotspots. The environmental impacts of military activities, explosives, and landmines cause long-lasting damage to ecosystems. Despite this, the links between armed conflict and biodiversity conservation remain understudied, especially in developing economies. The current legal and policy frameworks for global biodiversity conservation often fail to address the challenges of conducting research and conservation activities in conflict zones. There is a need to integrate conflict-sensitive protection into biodiversity policymaking, involving peace and scientific organizations to address conflict's consequences on biodiversity. International environmental laws should be reinforced with international humanitarian law principles to guide operations during and after conflicts.

The study used data from the MOFIBOTS database for biodiversity records and the UN-OCHA database for conflict-related information in Mindanao from 2000 to 2021. The biodiversity data included records for various taxonomic groups (insects, arachnids, fishes, amphibians, reptiles, birds, and mammals). Species occurrence data were standardized by dividing the values by the dataset's duration. Differences in species occurrence were analyzed by comparing average species richness per year between provinces with low (<10 conflicts per year) and high (>10 conflicts per year) conflict levels using the Mann–Whitney U test. The association between conflict events and species occurrence was assessed by measuring the distance (km) of species occurrence records to the nearest conflict event using QGIS. A Poisson generalized linear model (GLM) was used, employing the gaml() module in JAMOVI, to predict the impacts of taxonomic groups, distance from conflict areas, and frequency of conflict events on species richness at the provincial level. Two GLM candidates were built, and the best model was selected based on the lowest AICc and wAICc values. The spatial distribution of conflict events across habitat types was also analyzed using a chi-squared test. The correlation between the number of fatalities or threat density and tree cover was evaluated using Pearson's correlation coefficient. Conflict events were mapped and spatially connected to assess their location relative to protected areas, and the correlation between conflict indicators and environmental variables (tree cover, tree density, forest canopy height) was analyzed.

The analysis revealed a significant negative relationship between sociopolitical conflict and biodiversity in Mindanao. A total of 2174 conflicts were recorded from 2000 to 2021, with the highest levels in Sulu and Maguindanao provinces. Observed species richness was significantly lower in high-conflict areas compared to low-conflict areas (Mann–Whitney U test = 1340, p = 0.0027). The GLM model showed that an increase in conflict events was associated with lower recorded species richness (β = -0.002, p < 0.0001), while species richness was higher in areas farther from conflict events (β = 0.003, p < 0.0001). This effect was more pronounced for insects and birds. The spatial distribution of conflict events varied across habitat types (χ² = 716.4, df = 0.0001), with most events occurring in open habitats (agricultural areas and grasslands). A significant negative correlation was found between the number of fatalities and tree cover (Pearson’s r = -0.05, p = 0.013). The study showed a clear impact of conflict on biodiversity, with lower species richness and fewer records in areas experiencing higher conflict levels. This impact is not solely due to habitat destruction, but also the limitations placed on researchers in gathering data due to safety concerns and access restrictions. Areas with ongoing conflict and the presence of non-state armed groups experienced significant shortfalls in biodiversity information.

The findings demonstrate a strong correlation between sociopolitical conflict and biodiversity knowledge gaps in the Philippines. The lower species richness observed in high-conflict areas is likely due to both direct impacts (habitat destruction) and indirect impacts (difficulty in conducting research). The taxonomic differences in response to conflict highlight the importance of considering species detectability when assessing biodiversity in conflict zones. The challenges faced by researchers in accessing and working in conflict areas emphasize the need for conflict-sensitive approaches in biodiversity conservation. The study's results highlight the need for strategies that integrate safety measures and collaboration with local communities to address the complex interplay of conflict and biodiversity. The negative correlation between conflict intensity and tree cover is consistent with other research showing habitat destruction in conflict zones. However, the study cautions against assuming causality, acknowledging the influence of factors like human displacement and land-use change. The findings underscore the importance of addressing the interconnected nature of conflict and biodiversity conservation, particularly in regions like Mindanao where the overlap between conflict and biodiversity is high.

This research reveals the complex relationship between sociopolitical conflict and biodiversity knowledge shortfalls, highlighting the need for a multi-faceted approach to conservation in conflict-affected regions. The study emphasizes the importance of integrating conflict-sensitive strategies, strengthening collaboration with local communities, and incorporating biodiversity considerations into broader national security strategies. Future research should focus on quantifying the extent of conflict-related restrictions on research access and on developing effective post-conflict environmental restoration and peacebuilding initiatives. The proposed ten conservation strategies (detailed in Box 1) offer a framework for future work.

While this study provides valuable insights into the relationship between conflict and biodiversity in Mindanao, certain limitations exist. The reliance on existing databases may introduce biases due to uneven data collection efforts across different regions and taxonomic groups. The correlation between conflict and biodiversity may not definitively prove causality, and other confounding factors may influence the observed patterns. Future research should use more rigorous methods to establish stronger causal relationships. The focus on Mindanao may limit the generalizability of the findings to other conflict-affected regions with different ecological and sociopolitical contexts.