Career decisions in artistic professions during the COVID-19 pandemic in Germany—an experimental study

The study investigates how the COVID-19 pandemic influenced career decisions among people involved in the arts, especially artistic professionals in Germany. The pandemic caused severe disruptions to cultural events and income, creating a unique context to examine whether health threats (e.g., vaccine efficacy and associated risks) or financial considerations (e.g., income changes linked to alternative employment) drive intentions to leave or remain in artistic professions. The research posed confirmatory hypotheses: (1) higher perceived future health risks would increase willingness to change careers, and (2) expected financial losses would reduce willingness to change. A third, observational hypothesis posited differences between artistic professionals and nonprofessionals, expecting professionals to be affected most. The study’s importance lies in clarifying decision mechanisms under unprecedented economic and health pressures, contributing to understanding of resilience and turnover intentions within precarious creative labor markets.

The background synthesizes literature on artistic labor markets characterized by precarity, low and unstable income, uncertain recognition, and dependence on cultural industries and networks. Prior research shows heterogeneity in artists’ careers and mixed evidence on personality traits among artists and musicians, with some findings of higher neuroticism and openness, and variable mental health risks including affective disorders and schizotypal traits. Health behaviors among artists, especially musicians, often de-emphasize preventive strategies except for playing-related injuries. The pandemic intensified pre-existing vulnerabilities in the cultural and creative sectors, leading to closures, income losses, psychological stress, and some career exits, while also prompting adaptive behaviors (online performances, new collaborations) and potential resilience. Literature on risk perception suggests optimistic bias may lead individuals to underestimate personal health risks, potentially affecting decisions. Economic theories highlight nonpecuniary rewards and intrinsic motivation in artistic work, complicating the role of financial incentives in career decisions. This study leverages the pandemic context to experimentally disentangle health versus financial influences on career change intentions in the arts.

Design: A randomized 3×2 between-subjects vignette experiment embedded in an online survey during November 11, 2020–February 14, 2021 (Germany). Respondents were instructed to imagine themselves as performing artists facing spring 2021 conditions and choose between resuming full artistic activity (with vaccine-based access to cultural events) or accepting secure employment outside the cultural sector with specified income conditions. Experimental factors: Health factor (vaccine efficacy, VE): 50%, 70%, 90% (3 levels). Financial factor (income loss, IL) for alternative job: no financial loss vs. 20% lower income relative to prepandemic earnings (2 levels). One of six vignettes was randomly assigned to each participant. Sampling and participants: Convenience sample (n=788) recruited via facility-based sampling of cultural event hosts and institutions in two Bavarian counties, targeted invitations to cultural associations, ensembles, institutions, and snowball sampling via authors’ networks. The sample comprised producers and recipients of highbrow culture in Germany (emphasis on Bavaria). Of 788 participants, 654 (83%) completed the vignette choice. The sample included artists (13.1%), administrators (8.5%), students (6.7%), amateurs (35.3%), and recipients (36.2%); artistic professionals defined as artists or administrators (21.6%). Highly educated sample (63.9% university degree). Ethics approval was obtained (HSD University of Applied Sciences Ethics Committee, May 12, 2020). Measures: - Primary outcome: Dichotomous willingness to change career (accepting alternative job outside culture vs. resuming artistic profession) from vignette choice. - Sociodemographics: age (continuous by decades and 60+ dichotomy), gender, education, place of residence (rural/provincial/exurbs/urban). - Professional status: recipient, amateur, student (mostly music education), clerical/technical cultural staff (administrators), artist earning livelihood from artistic activities; musicians vs. other artists coded from open-ended job descriptions. - Financial situation: checklist of 16 income sources with changes since pandemic; counts of lost income sources used as proxy for financial losses; self-reported net household income optional (47.6% provided). - Health and mental health: self-assessed personal COVID-19 risk status; GAD-7 for generalized anxiety disorder; PHQ-2 for major depression. Access to privately owned garden as a proxy for green/blue space access. - Personality/psychosocial: trait optimism vs. pessimism (ultra-short scale), resilience (4-item short form, α=0.87), intensity of aesthetic experience (short Aesthetic Experience Scale, prior α≈0.887). Coping with second lockdown item. Statistical analysis: Confirmatory logistic regression modeling log-odds of choosing career change as a function of VE (categorical, ref: 90%), IL (categorical, ref: no loss), and their interaction. Post hoc power (n=654) indicated 90% power to detect OR=1.3 (α=0.05) or 80% for OR=1.25. Exploratory analyses added single predictors to the confirmatory model (demographics, professional status dummies, mental health, finances, risk status, personality, environment, coping), followed by multivariate model building to derive a parsimonious final model including independent predictors. Analyses performed with SAS PROC LOGISTIC; power with G*Power 3.0.

Sample: Of 788 participants, 654 (83%) answered the vignette choice. Artistic role distribution: artists 13.1%, administrators 8.5%, students 6.7%, amateurs 35.3%, recipients 36.2%. Mental health screening indicated probable generalized anxiety disorder in 16.9% and probable major depression in 22.8% (phi between disorders = 0.50). Confirmatory experiment (Table 3): - Financial factor: A 20% income loss associated with the alternative job significantly reduced willingness to change careers (OR=0.797; Wald χ²=6.307; p=0.012), i.e., participants were less likely to accept career change when it involved a 20% pay cut. - Health factor: Vaccine efficacy levels (50% vs 90%, OR=1.194; p=0.157; 70% vs 90%, OR=0.951; p=0.699) were not significant. No significant interactions between income loss and vaccine efficacy (p>0.12). Exploratory single-predictor additions (Table 4; ORs adjusted for experimental factors): - Greater willingness to change: female gender (OR=1.674; 95% CI 1.169–2.414; p=0.005); major depression (OR=1.844; 95% CI 1.219–2.776; p=0.003); generalized anxiety disorder (OR=1.578; 95% CI 1.001–2.460; p=0.046; largely overlapping with depression). - Lower willingness to change: higher education (OR per level=0.743; 95% CI 0.596–0.929; p=0.009); older age (per decade OR=0.882; 95% CI 0.788–0.988; p=0.030; 60+ OR=0.608; 95% CI 0.377–0.954; p=0.035); artistic professionals overall (OR=0.617; 95% CI 0.385–0.963; p=0.038); artistic professionals (nonmusicians) (OR=0.535; 95% CI 0.295–0.922; p=0.030). Participants without personal COVID-19 risk status tended toward lower acceptance of career change (OR=0.662; 95% CI 0.430–1.000; p=0.055). Real-life item (smaller n): "No job change planned" associated with lower hypothetical change (OR=0.577; reported 95% CI 0.150–0.725; p=0.006). - Non-significant: personality traits (optimism, resilience, intensity of aesthetic experience), place of residence, access to garden, coping with lockdown, being a musician (vs. others), financial loss measures beyond the experimental manipulation, and interactions artistic professional*income loss, artistic professional*female. Final parsimonious multivariable model (Table 5): - Significant predictors: 20% income loss (OR=0.783; 95% CI 0.652–0.940; p=0.009); higher education (OR=0.771 per level; 95% CI 0.615–0.970; p=0.025); artistic professionals (nonmusicians) (OR=0.521; 95% CI 0.283–0.909; p=0.027); major depression (OR=1.848; 95% CI 1.215–2.797; p=0.004); female gender (OR=1.635; 95% CI 1.133–2.375; p=0.009). Vaccine efficacy 50% vs 90% showed a trend (OR=1.246; p=0.089); 70% vs 90% non-significant (p=0.500). Interactions IL×VE were not significant (p≥0.080). Model max-rescaled R²=0.09. Overall: Health risk variations (via vaccine efficacy) did not influence career change intentions; financial penalties attached to changing careers reduced acceptance; several demographic and mental health factors were associated with willingness to change; artistic professionals, especially nonmusicians and administrators, showed a "don’t give up" tendency to remain.

Findings directly address the hypotheses: contrary to Hypothesis 1, perceived health risks operationalized as differing vaccine efficacy did not affect career-change intentions among respondents, suggesting insensitivity to health threat in this decision context, potentially reflecting optimistic bias in risk perception and a culture of health-risk tolerance in artistic practice. Supporting Hypothesis 2, attaching a 20% income loss to the secure alternative job significantly decreased willingness to change careers, demonstrating that even in a sector where nonpecuniary rewards and intrinsic motivation matter, financial trade-offs influence turnover intentions when changing careers reduces both income and access to artistic/nonmonetary utilities. The lack of interaction between health and financial factors indicates that financial disincentives to career change do not depend on the level of health threat. Exploratory associations show that women were more willing to consider career change, consistent with broader literature on higher loss aversion or risk sensitivity; signs of major depression increased willingness to change, aligning with evidence linking depression to risk-related decision changes; higher education correlated with lower change intentions, possibly reflecting sunk investments and stronger professional identity; and artistic professionals (especially nonmusicians/administrators) were less likely to opt for change, interpreted as a "don’t give up" effect rooted in resilience, professional commitment, and habituation to precarity. These results resonate with research on intrinsic motivation and multiple job-holding in the arts: many cultural workers persist despite insecurity, and diversified income streams may buffer shocks, reducing turnover intentions. The absence of significant effects for personality measures, residential context, access to green/blue space, and coping suggests these factors were not salient for hypothetical career decisions under the experimental framing. Overall, the study illuminates the primacy of financial considerations over health-risk perceptions in this context and highlights professional identity and mental health as key correlates.

This controlled survey experiment shows that during the COVID-19 pandemic, variations in perceived health risk (vaccine efficacy) did not drive career-change intentions among cultural participants, whereas attaching a 20% income loss to a secure alternative job significantly reduced willingness to change careers. Observationally, being female and screening positive for major depression increased the likelihood of considering change, while higher education and being an artistic professional (particularly nonmusicians/administrators) decreased it, suggesting a "don’t give up" effect among artistic professionals. The study contributes experimental evidence on decision mechanisms in precarious artistic labor markets under crisis. Future research should replicate these observational associations in representative or longitudinal samples, distinguish between freelancers and permanently employed artists, link intentions to actual behavior to address the intention–behavior gap, and further probe mechanisms (e.g., identity, calling, contract security, and diversified income portfolios) that sustain persistence in artistic careers under stress.

- Generalizability: Convenience sampling focused on producers and recipients of highbrow culture in Germany (emphasis on Bavaria) limits generalizability to all cultural workers. - Potential response and social desirability biases: Public debates on culture’s "system relevance" and demands for state support during data collection may have influenced responses, especially observational variables. - Vignette burden and nonresponse: Only 81% felt capable of answering vignettes; some reported discomfort. Selective nonresponse may have attenuated health-effect estimates and influenced financial effects. - Intentions vs. behavior: Vignettes capture intentions, not actual turnover; an intention–behavior gap may overestimate actual career changes. - Measurement constraints: Limited differentiation of employment types (freelance vs. permanent), reliance on brief screens for mental health and personality; some constructs (e.g., resilience) may be undercaptured. - Pandemic context not experimentally manipulated: The pandemic backdrop provided experimental realism but was not a controlled factor. - Multiple testing in exploratory analyses: No correction for type I error inflation in exploratory models.