The COVID-19 pandemic profoundly impacted artistic professions, causing cancellations of cultural events and significant economic hardship. This created a unique opportunity to study career decisions within this sector. The study aimed to determine whether health concerns or financial struggles were more influential in shaping decisions to change or remain in artistic professions. Previous research has established that artistic professions are characterized by low and insecure incomes, uncertain recognition, and unpredictable career paths. The precarious nature of these professions, often involving freelance work and dependence on the cultural industry's structure, has been well-documented. While studies have shown a higher prevalence of mental health disorders among artists, the impact of economic and health threats on their career decisions during the pandemic remained largely unexplored. This study addressed this gap by investigating the potential factors governing career decisions during a period of significant uncertainty and risk, focusing specifically on income loss and health concerns (vaccine efficacy). The research questions examined the relative influence of these factors on career decisions, specifically whether a severe health risk or an expected loss of income would be more motivating for artists to leave their professions. The researchers hypothesized that willingness to change careers would increase with higher health risks and decrease with expected financial losses, with artistic professionals being more affected than those outside the cultural sector.

The literature review covered the pre-pandemic conditions of artistic professions, highlighting their precariousness and uncertainty. It discussed the existing research on artists' professional status, noting the heterogeneity in their working conditions and the precarious balance between freelance and employee statuses. The literature also explored the relationship between personality traits and artistic orientations, revealing inconsistent findings across studies. Furthermore, it discussed the pre-existing higher levels of mental health disorders reported among musicians and other artists. The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on artistic professions was reviewed, noting the significant economic and psychological effects, particularly the increased financial stress and mental health challenges experienced by freelance artists. However, the review also acknowledged studies suggesting potential advantages for artists adapting to uncertainty and developing resilience. The literature laid the foundation for the study by illustrating the complex interplay of economic insecurity, health concerns, and personal characteristics shaping the career trajectories of artistic professionals, setting the stage for the empirical investigation of career decisions during the pandemic.

This study employed a vignette experiment embedded within an online survey. Participants were recruited through facility-based sampling, targeted sampling, and snowball sampling. The online survey was open from November 11, 2020, to February 14, 2021, resulting in a sample of 788 participants. The sample was a mixture of individuals involved in highbrow culture as artists, administrators, students, amateurs, and recipients. A 2x3 factorial design was used in the vignette experiment, manipulating two factors: income loss (comparable income vs. 20% income loss) and vaccine efficacy (50%, 70%, 90%). Participants were randomly assigned to one of six vignettes, each combining a level of income loss and vaccine efficacy. In the vignette, participants were asked to imagine themselves as a performing artist considering a job offer outside the cultural sector. They had to choose between resuming artistic activities (accepting the risks of limited vaccine protection) or accepting the job offer with the specified income level. Beyond the experimental variables, several additional sociodemographic and psychological variables were also collected, including age, gender, education level, place of residence, financial losses due to the pandemic, self-reported mental health using GAD-7 and PHQ-2 scores, access to green spaces, COVID-19 risk status, optimism, resilience, and aesthetic experience. A logistic regression model was used in the confirmatory analysis to assess the effects of income loss and vaccine efficacy on the decision to change careers, along with their interaction. Exploratory analyses used multivariate logistic regression to examine the effects of the additional variables on career change decisions. The study used SAS PROC LOGISTIC for statistical analysis and G-Power (3.0) for power calculations.

The sample consisted of 788 participants (83% completed the vignette experiment), with a relatively equal gender distribution (54.4% female). The sample was highly educated, with 63.9% holding university degrees. The sample included different cultural activity categories: artists (13.1%), administrators (8.5%), students (6.7%), amateurs (35.3%), and recipients (36.2%). Artistic professionals (artists and administrators) comprised 21.6% of the sample. The confirmatory analysis revealed a significant main effect for income loss: participants were significantly less likely to choose a career change if it involved a 20% income reduction (OR = 0.797, p = 0.012). The main effect of vaccine efficacy was not significant. Exploratory analyses indicated several other significant factors influencing career change decisions. Females were more likely to accept a career change (OR = 1.674, p = 0.005). Higher education levels were associated with a lower likelihood of changing careers (OR = 0.743, p = 0.009). Major depression or general anxiety disorder increased the likelihood of accepting a career change (OR = 1.844 for major depression, p = 0.003, and OR = 1.578 for general anxiety disorder, p = 0.046). Finally, artistic professionals (excluding musicians) were less likely to choose a career change (OR = 0.535, p = 0.030). The final parsimonious model included income loss, level of education, major depression, female respondent, and artistic professionals (non-musicians) as significant predictors, explaining a moderate amount of variance (R2 = 0.09).

The study's findings suggest that financial concerns, rather than health risks, were the primary driver of career change decisions among artistic professionals during the pandemic. The lack of a significant effect for vaccine efficacy challenges the initial hypothesis and may reflect factors such as optimistic bias regarding personal health risks and a pre-existing tendency among artists to disregard or minimize health concerns. The strong effect of income loss aligns with the precarious financial situation artists face and the importance of economic security. The exploratory findings highlight the role of gender, education level, mental health, and professional role in shaping these decisions. The greater willingness among females to change careers may reflect differences in risk aversion or societal expectations. The protective effect of higher education suggests a stronger investment in artistic careers among those with greater formal training. The positive relationship between mental health issues and career change is consistent with literature indicating the effect of mental health on risky decisions. Finally, the “don't give up” effect among artistic professionals (especially non-musicians) highlights the strong intrinsic motivation and commitment to artistic work, even in challenging circumstances.

This study provides novel evidence on the factors influencing career decisions of artistic professionals during the COVID-19 pandemic. Financial security, rather than health concerns, emerged as the primary determinant. The findings underscore the precariousness of artistic careers and highlight the importance of providing adequate financial support to sustain these professions. Future research could explore the long-term impact of the pandemic on career trajectories and examine the influence of other factors, such as social support networks and creative coping mechanisms. Longitudinal studies tracing artists' career paths would provide valuable insights into the sustainability of artistic professions in the post-pandemic era.

The study's reliance on a vignette experiment and self-reported data introduces limitations to the generalizability of findings. The hypothetical nature of the scenarios might not perfectly reflect real-world decisions, and social desirability bias could influence self-reported responses. The sampling method, while aiming for ecological validity, may not fully represent the diversity of artistic professionals in Germany. The potential impact of the concurrent public discussion on the “system relevance” of culture could also have influenced respondents’ answers. The study should be replicated to confirm these findings with different sampling methods and approaches to assess career decisions and its influencing factors.