The urgent need to mitigate climate change necessitates a decline in fossil fuel-based technologies. Coal, a major contributor to global warming, remains a significant energy source despite international efforts to phase it out. This paper examines the continued investment in coal, particularly in Australia, focusing on the Adani Carmichael coal mine project approved in 2019 after years of contestation. Australia's deepening carbon lock-in is attributed to the coal industry's structural economic power and its strong ties to the state and mainstream media. This study investigates the symbiotic relationship between the coal industry, business interests, the Australian state, and mainstream media by analyzing discourses surrounding the coal mine in both traditional and social media between 2017 and 2020. The research questions explore whether mainstream media environmental narratives differ from Twitter sentiment and whether this association changed over time, considering key public policy decisions.

The paper reviews existing literature on the political economy of coal in Australia, highlighting the historical alliance between the state and the coal industry. It discusses the industry's structural power stemming from its economic significance and its ability to influence policy-making through lobbying and direct participation in policy formulation. The concept of 'accumulation regimes' and 'modes of regulation' is used to understand the interplay between economic sectors and the state. The literature also addresses the industry's use of 'inside' and 'outside' lobbying strategies, including public relations campaigns and media coverage, to shape public perception and policy outcomes. The authors cite studies showing the influence of contrarian groups on media coverage of climate change, contrasting the US and Australian media landscapes.

The study employed a mixed-methods approach using data from Factiva, LexisNexis, and Twitter. To assess the role of traditional media, the researchers analyzed articles from the Courier-Mail (Queensland's main daily newspaper) and the ABC (a state-owned online news portal), focusing on articles containing both "Adani" and "coal." Twitter data included all tweets containing the hashtag #StopAdani and tweets containing "Adani" and "coal" (excluding #StopAdani tweets), geolocated to Australia, and excluding replies and retweets. Latent Semantic Analysis (LSA) was used to quantify the semantic similarity between the traditional news and Twitter data over time. TF-IDF weighting was applied to the term-document matrix. LSA involves a singular value decomposition to identify underlying factors explaining word correlations. Cosine similarity was calculated to assess document similarity. Multidimensional scaling (MDS) was used to reduce the dimensionality of the semantic space for visualization. The number of dimensions used in the LSA (100, 200, 300) and MDS (2, 50) were chosen based on sample sizes and to avoid overfitting. Shareholder data for News Corp and major Australian coal companies from Factiva were used to illustrate the network of interests between these entities.

The analysis revealed significant differences in the narratives presented by the Courier-Mail and the ABC. The Courier-Mail exhibited a strong pro-coal bias, emphasizing economic factors (jobs, economic growth) and downplaying environmental concerns and scientific evidence. The ABC, conversely, displayed more concern for environmental issues and provided more attention to scientific arguments. Regarding Twitter sentiment, the study found that both #StopAdani tweets and general Adani-related tweets showed increasing divergence from the Courier-Mail's pro-coal stance over time. The semantic similarity between #StopAdani tweets and general Adani-related tweets also increased steadily, suggesting a growing convergence of anti-coal sentiment on Twitter. The approval of the Carmichael mine despite increasing public opposition highlights the enduring influence of the coal industry and its close relationship with the Australian state.

The findings demonstrate that News Corp's media outlets, particularly the Courier-Mail, act as channels for the coal industry's outside lobbying, contributing to the discursive legitimation of coal mining. The disparity between the pro-coal bias in the Courier-Mail and the growing anti-coal sentiment on Twitter highlights the limitations of relying solely on traditional media for understanding public opinion. The increasing convergence of anti-coal sentiment on Twitter suggests a shift in public awareness, although the approval of the mine indicates the continued strength of the symbiotic relationship between the Australian state and the coal industry. This underscores the challenge of overcoming structural power and established political-economic networks in addressing climate change.

This study contributes to the understanding of the complex interplay between corporate media, public opinion, and political decision-making in the context of climate change. It reveals the significant role of corporate media in shaping narratives and legitimizing environmentally damaging practices. While social media provides a platform for contesting dominant narratives, the persistence of carbon lock-in in Australia highlights the need for broader structural changes to address the symbiotic relationship between the state and the coal industry. Future research could investigate other mechanisms of influence (inside lobbying) and expand the analysis across various social media platforms to further elucidate the dynamics of power in climate change debates.

The study's reliance on Twitter data might not fully capture the diversity of public opinion, as Twitter users may not be fully representative of the broader Australian population. The analysis of news coverage focused on two specific outlets, and findings may not generalize to the entire Australian media landscape. Furthermore, the study focuses primarily on discursive aspects, neglecting other factors influencing policy decisions.