This study investigates the effectiveness of tailored climate services in supporting optimal variety selection for durum wheat in the Euro-Mediterranean region. Using climate projections and crop growth models, the researchers estimate the benefits of adaptation through seasonal cultivar selection. The results show that without adaptation, yield reductions range from -7.8% to -5.8% with increased interannual variability. However, a climate service supporting local-scale cultivar choices can alleviate these impacts, even leading to yield gains, depending on the service's prediction skill. While improving mean yield, adaptation may also double the increase in interannual yield variability.

Andrea Toreti, Simona Bassu, Sennethold Asseng, Matteo Zampieri, Andrej Ceglar, Conxita Royo