Earth Sciences

An earth system model shows self-sustained thawing of permafrost even if all man-made GHG emissions stop in 2020

J. Randers and U. Goluke

This groundbreaking research by Jorgen Randers and Ulrich Goluke explores the alarming prospects of self-sustained permafrost thawing, revealing that even the complete halt of man-made greenhouse gas emissions might not be enough to stop this cycle. Discover how a slight increase in global temperatures could trigger decades of warming due to various climate feedback mechanisms!

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Playback language: English

Index

Abstract

This paper investigates the potential for self-sustained permafrost thawing using the ESCIMO climate model. The authors find that even if all man-made greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions ceased in 2020, the model predicts continued permafrost thaw for hundreds of years due to a combination of declining surface albedo, increasing atmospheric water vapor, and carbon emissions from thawing permafrost. This self-sustaining warming cycle is triggered by a relatively small increase in global temperature (+0.5°C above pre-industrial levels). The authors urge other modelers to validate their findings using larger, more complex models.

Publisher

Scientific Reports

Published On

Nov 12, 2020

Authors

Jorgen Randers, Ulrich Goluke

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