This paper investigates the potential for self-sustained permafrost thawing using the ESCIMO climate model. The authors find that even if all man-made greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions ceased in 2020, the model predicts continued permafrost thaw for hundreds of years due to a combination of declining surface albedo, increasing atmospheric water vapor, and carbon emissions from thawing permafrost. This self-sustaining warming cycle is triggered by a relatively small increase in global temperature (+0.5°C above pre-industrial levels). The authors urge other modelers to validate their findings using larger, more complex models.
Publisher
Scientific Reports
Published On
Nov 12, 2020
Authors
Jorgen Randers, Ulrich Goluke
Tags
permafrost
greenhouse gases
climate model
self-sustained thawing
global warming
atmospheric water vapor
albedo
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