Acceleration of U.S. Southeast and Gulf coast sea-level rise amplified by internal climate variability

This study reports an unprecedented acceleration in sea-level rise along the U.S. Southeast and Gulf coasts since 2010, exceeding rates observed in at least the last 120 years. Analysis of tide gauge records reveals that this acceleration is primarily driven by ocean dynamic signals, exceeding the externally forced response from climate model simulations. However, after removing the simulated forced response, the residual sea-level changes are consistent with internal climate variability, particularly wind-driven Rossby waves in the tropical North Atlantic. This suggests the acceleration is a compounding effect of external forcing and internal climate variability.

Sönke Dangendorf, Noah Hendricks, Qiang Sun, John Klinck, Tal Ezer, Thomas Frederikse, Francisco M. Calafat, Thomas Wahl, Torbjörn E. Törnqvist